Natural Rubber Market Price Analysis(June 23)

Analysis of natural rubber market prices on June 23

Index

On June 23, the STR20 price index of the natural rubber Qingdao market was 1,700 US dollars/ton, which was stable compared with the previous trading day.

Market analysis

Futures market

Spot market

Supply:

Foreign: The continuous rain in the Thai production area has caused continuous obstruction of rubber tapping. Some factories have increased the price to compete for raw material production, and the price of raw materials has continued to rise during the cycle; the Vietnamese production area has basically started tapping, but due to the rainy season, the supply of raw materials in the market is tight, and the processing plants still need to purchase raw materials at high prices to meet production needs.

Domestic: Frequent rainfall in the Yunnan production area affects the rubber tapping process, the supply of raw materials continues to be tight, the acquisition resistance remains unchanged, the concentrated milk factory remains strong, the standard rubber processing factory has difficulty in acquiring raw materials, and the acquisition price in the region remains strong. The weather conditions in the Hainan production area have improved, and rubber tapping has been gradually resumed, but the overall seasonal increase in new rubber is slow, and the competition for raw material procurement in the market has intensified, driving the acquisition price of rubber to rise continuously.

Demand: It is understood that some semi-steel tire companies have moderately increased production to meet order demand, and some companies have suspended production due to power plant maintenance, limiting the increase in operating rate; the companies that have full-steel tires have gradually resumed production at normal levels.

Overall, most companies' equipment is operating stably, and some companies that have undergone maintenance in the early stage have recovered their capacity utilization, which has a certain pull on overall output. During the cycle, the production and sales pressure of tire companies has not decreased, and the inventory of finished products has continued to increase. In the near future, it is expected that most companies will flexibly adjust production schedules according to their own orders and inventory.

List of futures and spot prices

Forecast for the future

The closing price of the main rubber contract today adjusted narrowly. From the supply side, rainfall disturbances in domestic and foreign production areas are still frequent in the short term, which is not conducive to rubber tapping. To a certain extent, it supports the high price of raw materials. In the short term, there is still support on the cost side, which boosts the market's bullish sentiment to a certain extent; the weak terminal market drags down demand, and the destocking of spot inventory is less than expected, which restricts the increase in rubber prices. It is expected that rubber prices may continue to fluctuate in a wide range in the short term.

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