Natural Rubber Market Price Analysis(June 20)

Analysis of natural rubber market prices on June 20

Index

On June 20, the STR20 price index of the natural rubber Qingdao market was 1,700 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day.

Market analysis

Futures market

Spot market

Supply:

Foreign: The continuous rain in the Thai production area has caused continuous obstruction of rubber tapping, and some factories have increased the price to compete for raw material production, and the price of raw materials has continued to rise during the cycle; the Vietnamese production area has basically started tapping, but due to the rainy season, the supply of raw materials in the market is tight, and the processing plants still need to purchase raw materials at high prices to meet production needs.

Domestic: Frequent rainfall in the Yunnan production area affects the rubber tapping process, the supply of raw materials continues to be tight, the acquisition resistance remains unchanged, the concentrated milk factory remains strong, the standard rubber processing plant has difficulty in acquiring raw materials, and the acquisition price in the region remains strong. The weather conditions in the Hainan production area have improved, and rubber tapping has been gradually resumed, but the overall seasonal increase in new rubber is slow, and the competition for raw material procurement in the market has intensified, driving the acquisition price of rubber to rise continuously.

Demand: It is understood that most companies have maintained stable operation, and the companies that underwent maintenance in the early stage have recovered to the normal level. Some companies have planned maintenance. The shipment performance among companies is different, and the overall performance is relatively flat. Among them, the inventory reserve level of semi-steel tire sample companies has increased compared with last week. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises is mainly stable. It is not ruled out that some companies have flexible production control to alleviate inventory pressure.

List of futures and spot prices

Forecast for the future market

The closing price of the main rubber contract today adjusted narrowly. From the supply side, the short-term rainfall disturbances in domestic and foreign production areas are still frequent, which is not conducive to rubber tapping. To a certain extent, it supports the high price of raw materials. In the short term, there is still support on the cost side, which boosts the market's bullish sentiment to a certain extent; the weak terminal market drags down demand, and the spot inventory destocking is less than expected, which restricts the increase in rubber prices. It is expected that rubber prices in the short term may continue to maintain a wide range of fluctuations.

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