PVC: Futures surged sharply upward
PVC futures analysis: Opening price of V2509 contract on May 14: 4844, highest price: 4995, lowest price: 4827, open interest: 988857, settlement price: 4915, yesterday's settlement: 4840, up 75, daily trading volume: 1532605 lots, deposited funds: 3.451 billion, capital outflow: 214 million.
Comprehensive price list of each region: yuan/ton
PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction price in the domestic PVC market has risen sharply, and the atmosphere in the spot market has improved. From the comparison of valuations: the North China region has risen by 50 yuan/ton, the East China region has risen by 60-120 yuan/ton, the South China region has risen by 80-100 yuan/ton, the Northeast region has risen by 50 yuan/ton, the Central China region has risen by 50 yuan/ton, and the Southwest region has risen by 30-70 yuan/ton. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC manufacturers have increased their quotations, but the increase varies, ranging from 30-50-80 yuan/ton, including ethylene-based enterprises.
The futures prices have risen sharply, and the situation is improving. The spot market has significantly increased the fixed price quotations of merchants in various regions. Although there are still basis quotations in the market, the advantages are rapidly declining.
Among them, the basis quotations in East China are 09 contracts (100-160-240), 09 contracts in South China (50-100), 09 contracts in the North (330-370-420), and 09 contracts (400) for some sources in the Southwest.
Although the prices in the futures and spot markets have risen sharply, the mentality of the spot market has also changed, but the actual transactions in the market are light, and the downstream demand parties are relatively cautious and have a strong wait-and-see mentality.
From the perspective of futures: The night market price of PVC2509 contract opened in a narrow range, but then began to rise slightly.
The futures price continued to rise from the beginning of the morning, maintaining a good upward trend, and further climbed in the afternoon, closing at a high level at the end of the day, showing a significant surge throughout the day.
The 2509 contract fluctuated between 4827 and 4995 throughout the day, with a spread of 168, and the 09 contract reduced its position by 93,652 lots.
PVC market outlook forecast:
Futures: The futures price of the PVC2509 contract showed a straight upward trend throughout the day, which became one of the rare big upward trends in 2025. The highest point of the market was 4995, almost touching the five-digit head.
The whole day showed a situation of large-scale reduction of short positions and exit, among which short positions were 28.8% compared with long positions of 25.0%, and long positions were 22.3% compared with short positions of 20.4%.
There were also certain long orders entering the market. The technical level showed that the middle track and upper track of the three tracks of the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) turned upward significantly, and the futures price rose through the middle track and rose sharply.
The KD line and MACD line at the daily level show a golden cross trend, and the technical closing line has changed. It is expected that the futures price will be slightly stronger in the short term, and the pressure performance in the direction of the first target pressure level of the upper track, 5050, will be observed.
Spot: At the close of the midday session, most of the main domestic futures contracts rose. The main contract of the European container shipping line closed the daily limit, with an increase of 15.99%; styrene (EB) rose by more than 4%, methanol, alumina, and ethylene glycol (EG) rose by more than 3.5%.
PVC ranks sixth in the domestic commodity increase list, with a decent increase, and the price of PVC spot market has also seen a sharp increase. Whether it is the ex-factory price or the quotations of intermediaries in various regions, there has been a significant upward adjustment, reversing the sluggish spot atmosphere.
There has been no obvious change in the supply and demand of PVC. Judging from the current trend of the futures and spot markets, it is more inclined to the delayed effect of policies. It is expected that the operation of the spot market in the short term may be slightly adjusted within the range after the rise, but from the perspective of sentiment, there may still be some upward space.
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