PVC: Price Decline and Short-term Outlook
PVC futures analysis: On June 24, the night trading price of PVC2509 contract maintained a narrow adjustment trend, and the fluctuation range of the futures price tended to be narrow. The futures price showed a clear downward trend from the early trading, and the market weakened significantly.
The futures price was running at a low level in the afternoon. V2509 contract opening price: 4881, highest price: 4897, lowest price: 4802, spread 95, reduced position 34196 lots, position: 934961 lots, settlement price: 4842, yesterday's settlement: 4907, down 65, daily trading volume: 1190057 lots, deposited funds: 3.17 billion, capital outflow: 151 million.
Comprehensive price list of each region: yuan/ton
PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction price of the domestic PVC market has fallen significantly, and the atmosphere in the market has weakened. From the comparison of valuations: North China fell by 30 yuan/ton, East China fell by 50 yuan/ton, South China fell by 50 yuan/ton, Northeast China fell by 40 yuan/ton, Central China fell by 50 yuan/ton, and Southwest China fell by 50 yuan/ton.
The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC manufacturers remained stable, and some were slightly reduced by 30 yuan/ton to promote transactions. The futures market has seen a significant decline, and the spot market's fixed price quotations have been reduced accordingly, and the reduction range is large.
The spot price and fixed price coexist, but the spot price advantage is relatively obvious after the futures price goes down. Among them, the basis price in East China is 09 contract (50-120-170), the 09 contract in South China is (0-20-50), the 09 contract in the North is (360-420-450), and the 09 contract in some sources in the Southwest is (380-410-460). With the price going down and the price point having an advantage, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiries has increased, and small orders are just needed to replenish inventory. The spot market transaction has improved slightly compared with the previous period.
PVC market outlook:
Futures: The operation of the PVC2509 contract price has shown an obvious downward trend. The low end of the market 4802 is almost broken. The futures price quickly breaks through the middle track and goes down deeply. There is a partial reduction in positions on the market, and there is an average of long and short positions. The sharp decline in the futures price has changed the technical closing line. Among them, the three tracks of the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) have narrowed rapidly, the KD line at the daily level has shown a dead cross trend, and the distance between the two MACD lines has shortened.
At the close of the midday session, the main domestic futures contracts fell more than they rose, and many energy and chemical products fell to the limit. Especially crude oil products and the European line of container shipping. The decline in the PVC futures price is also large, and the unit is on the decline list. In the short term, the operation of the futures price will observe the support performance of the 4800 position below.
Spot: Most commodities went down today, among which fuel oil and SC crude oil both hit the lower limit, down 9%, low sulfur fuel oil (LU) fell more than 7%, container shipping Europe line fell more than 6%, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) fell 6%, hitting the lower limit.
The main consideration for the decline of commodities comes from the news that "Is the 12-day war between Israel and Iran over?" In the early stage, commodities showed a significant rise under the conflict between Israel and Iran, and today the decline of commodities gave up the gains. In the foreign market, the price of international crude oil futures market closed down by more than 7%.
It seems unlikely that Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz, which eases the outside world's concerns that Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz. After the conflict ends, there will be a certain impact on domestic commodities. However, there are no major variable factors in the supply and demand of PVC fundamentals. Overall, the spot price of PVC may be adjusted in a narrow range at a low level in the short term.
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