Carbon Black: Caught in Cost‑Demand Squeeze（Sep 2）
Carbon Black Daily Report: Stuck Between High Costs and Weak Demand
According to Tuduoduo data estimates, the carbon black price index on September 2 was 8,081.5, flat compared to the previous trading day.
Carbon Black Market Prices
Carbon Black Market Analysis
1. Upstream Raw Materials: Coal tar prices in Shandong stood at 4,600 CNY/ton; in Shanxi at 4,600 CNY/ton; and in Hebei at 4,580 CNY/ton. The domestic high-temperature coal tar market remained in a wait-and-see mode, with continued bullish signals in the market. In the short term, the coal tar market is still expected to trend upward.
2. Carbon Black Supply: The operating rate of sample enterprises in the domestic carbon black market declined narrowly. Some manufacturers in Shanxi were under maintenance, and large plants were not running at high loads. Maintenance in Shandong is expected to resume at the end of the month, while some small plants that underwent earlier maintenance remained offline. Overall, the operating rate of the carbon black market declined.
3. Downstream Demand: At the beginning of the month, most enterprises maintained stable equipment operations, with a few completing maintenance and preparing for restarts. Overall supply-side fluctuations were minimal. Although some enterprises had issued price increase notices, the current implementation status remained unclear. After the concentrated shipments at the end of the previous month, shipments at the beginning of the month were relatively subdued. More enterprises maintained a wait-and-see stance, with some experiencing shortages of economy-grade products.
Market Outlook
As of now, the carbon black market is in a tug-of-war pattern of "strong cost support vs. demand drag." On the cost side, new contract prices for raw material coal tar continue to rise, providing strong support for carbon black quotations. The market maintains high-price offers, and market sentiment is boosted by this. However, demand-side follow-through is clearly insufficient — tire enterprises have largely completed their concentrated procurement orders and are currently only making small-lot, essential purchases to replenish inventory. There is a lack of sustained volume-driving momentum, and limited room for further price increases. Overall, under cost pressure, carbon black prices remain firm at high levels, but new contract negotiations are deadlocked. In the short term, the market is likely to continue consolidating at high levels.
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