Natural Rubber Futures Rise: Market Warming?（Sep 16）
Natural Rubber Daily: Futures Rise, Does the Market "Warm Up"?
Price Index
On September 16, the STR20 price index in the Qingdao market for natural rubber was 2,400 USD/ton, up 20 USD/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Overseas: Increased rainfall in Thai production areas, especially in the northeastern regions where excessive precipitation has slowed raw material release. Factories are purchasing at higher prices, continuously bidding up raw material costs.
In Vietnam's southern production areas, heavy rainfall has supported raw material prices. Affected by high raw material prices, processing factories continue to face profit pressure.
Domestic: Weather conditions in Yunnan production areas are normal, tapping operations are proceeding regularly, and raw material supply is gradually increasing, though some low-priced material is still available.
In Hainan production areas, rainfall disruption has eased, and tapping has resumed in some areas. Raw material supply has increased month-over-month. To ensure delivery and production requirements, local processing factories have intensified their bidding for raw materials, and the price center for latex purchases has stabilized and rebounded.
Demand Side
Raw material prices remain high and volatile, putting pressure on tire manufacturers' production operations. Companies are successively scheduling maintenance shutdowns to alleviate operational pressure. With the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approaching, multiple companies are arranging concentrated maintenance, with some maintenance periods lasting 10 days or more. A clear downward trend in industry operating rates is expected for mid-to-late September.
Futures and Spot Price Overview
Market Forecast
Futures prices have been trending higher, providing some boost to spot market sentiment. Holders' price-supporting sentiment has strengthened, and offer price centers have moved up slightly. Downstream inquiry activity has improved modestly compared with the previous period, but purchasing sentiment remains cautious, largely maintaining a need-based replenishment rhythm. Willingness to actively chase prices is insufficient, and actual transaction performance is generally moderate. The market is characterized by "warming sentiment with tepid transactions."
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