Carbon Black Daily: High Prices, Downstream Reluctant（Sep 14）

Carbon Black Daily: Prices Too High, Downstream Hesitant

01  Carbon Black Index

According to TuDuoDuo data, the carbon black price index on September 14 stood at 11,728.25, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day.

02  Carbon Black Market Price

03  Carbon Black Market Impact Analysis

1. Upstream Raw Materials:

Shandong coal tar price is 6,720 yuan/ton; Shanxi coal tar price is 6,810 yuan/ton; Hebei coal tar price is 6,770 yuan/ton. The supply-demand tightness in the high-temperature coal tar market is difficult to reverse, and the upward momentum for coal tar prices persists. However, as prices reach new highs, procurement sentiment in the market has become increasingly cautious, which is expected to limit further upside.

2. Carbon Black Supply:

The operating rate of sample enterprises in the domestic carbon black market has risen narrowly. A major Shandong-based manufacturer has resumed production after completing maintenance, lifting the regional operating rate. However, following the sharp rise in coal tar prices, new carbon black orders are difficult to ship, and most producers are primarily fulfilling previously placed low-price orders. The carbon black market faces excessive operating pressure, with enterprises planning to reduce loads. Some major producers have cut production lines. Overall, the increase in carbon black operating rates remains limited.

3. Downstream Demand:

According to industry sources, with raw material prices remaining elevated recently, tire manufacturers face significantly increased cost pressure on raw materials, leading to shrinking profits. Tire companies have issued price increase notices, but the overall increase is insufficient to cover cost-side pressure, and downstream channel acceptance remains limited. Under production and sales pressure, tire enterprises' willingness to control output has strengthened, with some companies scheduling maintenance, which will drag down overall operating rates.

04  Market Outlook

The carbon black market is currently characterized by a pronounced high-level stalemate. New order prices remain at elevated levels, but after breaking through previous highs, downstream resistance has rapidly intensified, market negotiation sentiment has cooled, and new order transaction volumes have declined significantly. The transaction structure is dominated by sporadic small orders, with large-volume follow-through notably insufficient. Downstream players generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude toward the current price increases. Meanwhile, the room for further raw material price increases has become relatively limited, with cost-side upward momentum weakening at the margin, increasing the pressure on carbon black producers to defend prices. However, as long as cost support has not yet collapsed, the carbon black market will maintain a high-level consolidation trend in the short term, and the dilemma of being unable to move significantly in either direction is likely to persist.

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