Carbon Black Daily Report: High and Precarious

01  Carbon Black Index

According to calculations by Tuoduoduo, the carbon black price index on September 8 was 8,981.5, holding steady compared to the previous trading day.

02  Carbon Black Market Price

03  Carbon Black Market Impact Analysis

1. Upstream Raw Materials

Coal tar prices: 4,810 yuan/ton in Shandong; 4,920 yuan/ton in Shanxi; 4,855 yuan/ton in Hebei. The tight supply situation for high-temperature coal tar is unlikely to change fundamentally in the short term, and the market will continue to maintain an upward trend.

2. Carbon Black Supply

Operating rates at sample enterprises in the domestic carbon black market declined marginally. After raw material coal tar new-order prices rose sharply, shipment pressure in the market increased. Some large plants, while ensuring delivery of existing orders, have begun planning production line reductions. Loads at large plants in Shanxi, Hebei, and other regions have decreased. Plants undergoing maintenance in Shandong are expected to resume operations at the beginning of the month, while some small plants that previously underwent maintenance remain shut down. Overall, operating rates in the carbon black market have declined.

3. Downstream Demand

According to industry sources, enterprises that previously underwent maintenance are mostly resuming production as planned, with capacity gradually recovering. Recovery conditions vary, with most enterprises flexibly adjusting based on their own order situations. Some all-steel tire enterprises, anticipating price increases for mid-month export orders, are currently focusing on concentrated production of export orders. Meanwhile, some semi-steel tire enterprises still face insufficient overall orders, and production control measures continue. Overall, operating rates are showing a recovery-driven increase.

04  Market Outlook

The carbon black market is currently maintaining a firm-to-strong trend under strong cost-side support. New-order tender prices for coal tar in some regions have seen sharp increases, injecting strong bullish sentiment into the carbon black market. New order quote prices have broken through previous highs, and factories are resolute in their price-holding stance. However, downstream enterprises have limited acceptance of high-priced goods, mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and actual transaction volumes have not yet effectively followed suit, creating a clear divergence between high prices and actual transactions. In the short term, cost logic will continue to dominate market direction. Going forward, close attention should be paid to coal tar tender dynamics as a directional guide. It is expected that carbon black new-order prices will remain at high levels, but whether transactions will follow through remains to be seen.

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