Carbon Black Special Issue - No. 20260226
Carbon Black Market Analysis
1.1 Carbon Black Market Price Analysis
This week, domestic carbon black prices remained relatively stable. As of Thursday, prices were: Shandong 6800 yuan/ton; Shanxi 6350 yuan/ton; Hebei 6900 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 6850 yuan/ton; and Zhejiang 6800 yuan/ton. Following the holiday, new orders in the carbon black market were limited. Many companies primarily fulfilled pre-holiday orders.
Downstream buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach, and while tire manufacturers are gradually resuming operations, they are not yet fully operational, resulting in low purchasing enthusiasm. The bidding price for raw material coal tar has increased compared to before the holiday, increasing cost pressure. However, downstream demand also exists, leading to expectations of higher prices in new order negotiations.
1.2 Carbon Black Market Index Analysis
According to data from TuDuoDuo, the carbon black price index was 6714.25 as of February 26th, remaining stable compared to the previous period.
2. Raw Material Market Analysis
2.1 Weekly Average Price Analysis of Coal Tar
The domestic high-temperature coal tar market saw an upward trend this period. Following the holiday, some downstream factories that had previously suspended operations gradually resumed work, and the raw material inventories of downstream factories that operated normally during the holiday decreased significantly.
Therefore, downstream demand remained strong, with some factories experiencing tight raw material inventories and showing strong enthusiasm for participating in auctions. Although some representative companies did not participate in auctions this week, the market still showed an upward trend, especially in Inner Mongolia, where prices fell sharply due to the complete shutdown of deep processing plants in Wuhai before the holiday.
Therefore, prices rose significantly this week. In the short term, with positive factors dominating, the coal tar market still has room for further increases.
2.2 Anthracene Oil Weekly Average Price Analysis
This period, the spot price of anthracene oil in Shandong Province remained stable with a slight increase. In the first working cycle after the Spring Festival, the price of new orders for high-temperature coal tar, a raw material, generally rose.
Coal tar deep-processing enterprises resumed operations in a concentrated manner, increasing the supply of anthracene oil. Influenced by the rise in raw material prices, many anthracene oil traders intended to raise their offers, and are currently testing the waters.
Looking at downstream demand, the recovery in demand for anthracene oil hydrogenation is not as expected, resulting in insufficient incremental demand. The carbon black market continues to recover, leading to a slight increase in demand. Overall, in the first cycle after the holiday, the anthracene oil market, following the trend of raw materials, has some room for price increases.
3. Carbon Black Market Forecast
Looking at the next cycle, downstream demand is expected to gradually recover after the holiday, and the rebound in raw material coal tar prices will support market sentiment from a cost perspective. Downstream purchasing demand is expected to rebound, and new order transactions in the carbon black market are expected to increase.
4. Carbon Black Industry N330 Profit Analysis
Taking Shandong as an example, the bidding price of raw material coal tar rose, and downstream restocking after the holiday provided strong support, increasing cost pressure. New carbon black orders were limited, and downstream procurement has not yet recovered after the holiday, resulting in the carbon black market remaining in a loss-making state. As of now, the theoretical weekly profit for the carbon black industry is -246 yuan/ton, a decrease of 147.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous period.
5. Market Operating Rate Statistics This Week
5.1 Carbon Black Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating load of sample carbon black enterprises is gradually increasing. Some enterprises that had reduced production lines after the holiday have gradually returned to normal. During the Spring Festival, the focus was mainly on order fulfillment. Smaller factories have not yet returned to normal. Overall, the market operating rate has increased.
5.2 Downstream Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating rate of semi-steel tires in China is 31%. The operating rate of all-steel tires in China is 26%.
This week, the tire operating rate has significantly increased compared to the previous period. The previous period coincided with the Spring Festival holiday, during which most enterprises suspended production, resulting in an operating rate at its lowest point this year. After the holiday, many tire companies resumed work from February 22 (the sixth day of the first lunar month) to February 24 (the eighth day of the first lunar month), with some companies resuming work on February 19 (the third day of the first lunar month). Production is gradually increasing, which has boosted the operating rate this week significantly compared to the previous week.
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