Carbon Black Special Issue - No. 20260312
Carbon Black Market Analysis
1.1 Carbon Black Market Price Analysis
This week, domestic carbon black prices saw a significant increase. As of Thursday, prices were 7900 yuan/ton in Shandong, 7700 yuan/ton in Shanxi, 7900 yuan/ton in Hebei, 7900 yuan/ton in Guangzhou, and 7900 yuan/ton in Zhejiang. New orders for carbon black this week were high, but actual transactions were limited. The increase in new tender prices for raw material coal tar boosted market sentiment, leading to higher new orders for carbon black.
Downstream buyers showed strong resistance to purchases. New tire orders were not yet negotiated, as previous orders were being fulfilled, resulting in limited new order transactions. After the holiday, carbon black production gradually recovered, increasing supply. However, with costs remaining high, the market is reluctant to ship at lower prices, resulting in high negotiating prices and significant pressure on negotiations, leading to a stalemate in actual transactions.
1.2 Carbon Black Market Index Analysis
According to data from TuDuoDuo, as of March 12th, the carbon black price index was 7855, an increase of 627.5 compared to the previous period.
2. Raw Material Market Analysis
2.1 Weekly Average Price Analysis of Coal Tar
This period saw a significant increase in the domestic high-temperature coal tar market. New order prices for domestic high-temperature coal tar continued to rise, with a substantial increase. Downstream factories maintained strong demand, and the profit situation for deep-processing enterprises was relatively good in the short term. Therefore, the demand for coal tar remained strong, and the market maintained its upward trend in the short term. However, the future trend will depend on the follow-up price increases of coal tar pitch.
2.2 Anthracene Oil Weekly Average Price Analysis
This period, the spot price of anthracene oil in Shandong Province showed a relatively significant upward trend. Prices for high-temperature coal tar, the raw material, were gradually released across various regions, showing a continuous upward trend. This supported the sentiment of anthracene oil holders, leading to a push for higher offers. Downstream, carbon black companies were offering high prices, making actual transactions difficult. In the short term, the anthracene oil market is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend.
3. Carbon Black Market Outlook
Looking ahead to the next cycle, the risk of high domestic raw material coal tar prices is increasing, weakening the cost-driven force on the market. However, with raw material costs remaining high, the actual increase in carbon black market offers still needs to follow. To restore market profits, new order prices in the carbon black market will likely remain firm in the short term.
4. Carbon Black Industry N330 Profit Analysis
Taking Shandong as an example, the bidding price of raw material coal tar continued to rise. With increased cost pressure, new order prices in the carbon black market followed suit, but actual orders were difficult to secure. Downstream pressure pushed the market down to high levels, resulting in limited transactions at high prices. Theoretically, the carbon black market remains in a loss-making situation. As of now, the theoretical weekly profit for the carbon black industry is -21.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 190 yuan compared to the previous period.
5. Market Operating Rate Statistics This Week
5.1 Carbon Black Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating load of sample carbon black enterprises is gradually increasing. Small and medium-sized enterprises that underwent maintenance earlier are gradually resuming production. After the maintenance of large-scale production lines, the market operating rate has increased.
5.2 Downstream Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating rate of semi-steel tires in China is 79%. The operating rate of all-steel tires in China is 72%.
Domestic tire companies have basically restored their production schedules to normal levels, providing some support for the overall operating rate. In addition, driven by expectations of price increases, all-steel tire manufacturers saw active domestic sales and faster inventory reduction; while semi-steel tire manufacturers experienced relatively stable domestic and international sales, with overall shipments being relatively average.
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