Carbon Black Weekly Report: Costs Strengthen
Carbon Black Market Analysis
1.1 Carbon Black Market Price Analysis
Domestic carbon black prices showed a slight upward trend this week. As of Thursday, prices were: Shandong 7650 yuan/ton; Shanxi 7500 yuan/ton; Hebei 7700 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 7700 yuan/ton; and Zhejiang 7650 yuan/ton. This week saw the release of some raw material coal tar tender prices, leading to widespread price increases. Cost factors drove the market, with positive factors dominating the market. Some offers also anticipated further price increases, and downstream purchasing inquiries improved. However, with new tire orders largely completed, the supply and demand situation remains favorable in the short term, and the upward trend in carbon black prices is clear.
1.2 Carbon Black Market Index Analysis
According to data from TuDuoDuo, the carbon black price index was 7629.5 as of July 2nd, an increase of 300 from the previous period.
2. Raw Material Market Analysis
2.1 Weekly Average Price Analysis of Coal Tar
This period saw a clear upward trend in the domestic high-temperature coal tar market. New auction prices for domestic high-temperature coal tar were released successively, with auction prices in Shanxi continuing to rise. From the supply side, coking plants' operating enthusiasm was generally low, and the supply of high-temperature coal tar was unlikely to increase in the near future. Currently, downstream operating rates remain high, and demand remains strong, especially in Shanxi where the supply-demand tension is particularly pronounced. In the short term, the coal tar market will continue its upward trend, but the extent of further increases at high levels will be limited.
2.2 Anthracene Oil Weekly Average Price Analysis
The domestic anthracene oil market saw a significant upward trend this week. New orders for high-temperature coal tar, the raw material, were gradually released, showing a continuous upward trend. This provided cost support for anthracene oil holders, and bullish sentiment persisted in the market.
Many anthracene oil manufacturers were poised to push prices higher, but downstream carbon black producers had limited capacity to accept high prices. Manufacturers cautiously tested end-user acceptance, and carbon black market participants did not purchase, resulting in a stalemate. The anthracene oil market is expected to remain strong in the short term.
3. Carbon Black Market Forecast
Looking ahead to the next cycle, raw material coal tar prices are gradually rising in tenders, with significant increases in Shanxi province. Increased cost pressure has led some large manufacturers to raise their quoted prices, increasing negotiation pressure. However, low-priced items are gradually decreasing, and new order prices are expected to face upward pressure.
4. Carbon Black Industry N330 Profit Analysis
Taking Shandong province as an example, the price of raw material coal tar has begun to rise, and carbon black prices have also started to follow suit. The theoretical profit of the carbon black market remains relatively profitable. As of now, the theoretical weekly profit for the carbon black industry is 81.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 36.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous period.
5. Market Operating Rate Statistics This Week
5.1 Carbon Black Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating rate of sample enterprises in the domestic carbon black market is 68%.
5.2 Downstream Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating rate of semi-steel tires in China is 65%. The operating rate of all-steel tires in China is 64%.
The tire operating rate improved slightly this week compared to the previous week. Enterprises that underwent long maintenance at the beginning of the week have resumed operations as planned, and production is gradually recovering. However, considering the current raw material and order situation, most enterprises are maintaining their previous production control measures.
However, the end of this week coincides with the beginning of July, and a small number of enterprises in Dongying and Weifang have maintenance schedules, including both semi-steel and all-steel tire manufacturers. Most of these maintenance periods are 3-5 days, with some longer periods, which will to some extent delay tire product supply at the beginning of the month.
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