Carbon Black Weekly Report: Prices Begin to Rise

Carbon Black Market Analysis

1.1 Carbon Black Market Price Analysis

Domestic carbon black prices showed a slight upward trend this week. As of Thursday, prices were: Shandong 7350 yuan/ton; Shanxi 7200 yuan/ton; Hebei 7400 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 7400 yuan/ton; and Zhejiang 7350 yuan/ton.

This week, raw material coal tar prices reversed last week's decline and began to rebound, supported by multiple positive factors. Cost-side benefits drove new order negotiations in the region, with some new carbon black orders expected to follow suit. 

Coupled with the approaching end of the month, some downstream enterprises were replenishing their stocks, but resisted market prices, leading to a stalemate in market negotiations. Currently, upstream and downstream negotiations are in a tug-of-war. Supported by cost-side benefits, carbon black prices entered an upward trend at the end of the week.

1.2 Carbon Black Market Index Analysis

According to data from TuDuoDuo, as of June 25th, the carbon black price index was 7329.5, an increase of 48 from the previous period.

2. Raw Material Market Analysis

2.1 Weekly Average Price Analysis of Coal Tar

This week, the domestic high-temperature coal tar market ended its downward trend and began to rebound. At the beginning of the week, with the downward pressure from downstream factories gradually easing and supported by rigid demand, the domestic high-temperature coal tar market was mainly in a wait-and-see mode. As sporadic auction prices rose, market sentiment clearly warmed up.

With the end of the month approaching, carbon black entered a new pricing cycle, and downstream operating rates were generally high, with tight supply and demand for coal tar in some areas. Therefore, some positive factors emerged in the market, and the coal tar market showed signs of a rebound. In the short term, the market returned to a positive trend.

2.2 Anthracene Oil Weekly Average Price Analysis

This week, the domestic anthracene oil market saw mixed price movements. At the beginning of the week, the new order prices for the raw material, high-temperature coal tar, were not yet released, resulting in a weak market guidance for anthracene oil. Currently, holders of goods are not actively quoting prices. Downstream carbon black market new orders are expected to weaken, leading to downward pressure on prices and insufficient actual negotiation activity.

As new order prices for the raw material, high-temperature coal tar, are gradually released, market prices are mainly rising, which will positively support the willingness of anthracene oil holders to sell. Currently, they are not actively quoting prices, and downstream carbon black buyers are cautiously observing, mainly buying at low prices. In the short term, the anthracene oil market has room for upward movement.

3. Carbon Black Market Forecast

Looking at the next cycle, the price of raw material coal tar is gradually rising. Driven by the favorable cost environment, new order prices for carbon black are also expected to follow suit. However, downstream buyers have not yet accepted this, and the negotiation atmosphere is currently stagnant. However, low-priced offers will continue to decrease, and new orders will maintain a firm price trend.

4. Carbon Black Industry N330 Profit Analysis

Taking Shandong as an example, the price of raw material coal tar has begun to rise, while the price increase of carbon black is relatively weak. The theoretical profit of the carbon black market remains relatively profitable, but the profit margin has narrowed. As of now, the theoretical weekly profit of the carbon black industry is 45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 124 yuan/ton compared to the previous period.

5. Market Operating Rate Statistics This Week

5.1 Carbon Black Market Operating Rate Analysis

The operating rate of sample enterprises in the domestic carbon black market is 70%.

5.2 Downstream Market Operating Rate Analysis

The operating rate of semi-steel tires in China is 63%. The operating rate of all-steel tires in China is 61%.

This week, the tire operating rate declined compared to the previous week. Some semi-steel tire enterprises that underwent maintenance during the Dragon Boat Festival are gradually resuming production, while a few enterprises are still under maintenance. The overall capacity utilization rate of the industry has only increased to a limited extent. Currently, domestic market sales are slow, while some overseas regions still provide some support, and domestic sales pressure remains.

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