Carbon Black Weekly Report: Weakening Costs
Carbon Black Market Analysis
1.1 Carbon Black Market Price Analysis
Domestic carbon black prices remained stable this week. As of Thursday, prices were: Shandong 7650 yuan/ton; Shanxi 7500 yuan/ton; Hebei 7700 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 7700 yuan/ton; and Zhejiang 7650 yuan/ton. This week, raw material coal tar bidding also showed weakness, creating a strong negative impact on costs.
Market trading activity declined, tire companies had high inventory levels, and their recent purchasing enthusiasm was low, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. Negative supply and demand factors dominated, and spot prices remained stable for the time being, but further declines are still expected.
1.2 Carbon Black Market Index Analysis
According to data from TuDuoDuo, the carbon black price index was 7629.5 as of July 9th, remaining stable compared to the previous period.
2. Raw Material Market Analysis
2.1 Weekly Average Price Analysis of Coal Tar
This week, the domestic high-temperature coal tar market began to decline. At the beginning of the week, as coal tar prices continued to rise, downstream resistance increased, and coal pitch prices continued to rise. However, the rate of increase narrowed significantly, and negative factors increased in the market. Therefore, the market lacked the momentum for further increases. Coupled with a decline in downstream factory purchasing sentiment, the coal tar market is expected to end its upward trend and enter a downward channel in the short term.
2.2 Anthracene Oil Weekly Average Price Analysis
The domestic anthracene oil market saw narrow adjustments this week, with a slight downward trend at the beginning. At the start of the week, new orders for the raw material, high-temperature coal tar, were not auctioned, and the market atmosphere cooled, providing some negative guidance for downstream industries. Anthracene oil manufacturers mostly observed the market sentiment of downstream carbon black producers, maintaining a relatively stable state for the time being.
Towards the end of the week, new orders for the raw material, high-temperature coal tar, generally weakened, suppressing the willingness of anthracene oil producers to ship. Downstream carbon black market activity was sluggish, with no active inquiries, putting pressure on demand for anthracene oil. Under pressure from both costs and demand, the anthracene oil market is expected to weaken in the short term.
3. Carbon Black Market Forecast
Looking ahead to the next cycle, new orders for the raw material, coal tar, have fallen from their high levels, with costs conceding to the market. However, downstream buyers are waiting for further price drops and are currently cautious in their purchases. Actual transactions in the market are limited, and negative factors have emerged for new orders, suggesting a potential downward adjustment in new order prices.
4. Carbon Black Industry N330 Profit Analysis
Taking Shandong as an example, the carbon black market price and the raw material coal tar market price are stable, and the theoretical profit of the carbon black market is currently profitable. As of now, the theoretical weekly profit of the carbon black industry is 81.5 yuan/ton, stable compared to the previous period.
5. Market Operating Rate Statistics This Week
5.1 Carbon Black Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating rate of sample enterprises in the domestic carbon black market is 68%, stable compared to the previous period.
5.2 Downstream Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating rate of semi-steel tires in China is 61%. The operating rate of all-steel tires in China is 61%.
This week, the tire operating rate declined compared to the previous week. The supply performance of tire companies varied. Leading companies performed relatively well, but some were affected by reduced orders and experienced production cuts. Most companies in Shandong were in a state of production control. Since the beginning of July, companies have been taking turns to carry out maintenance according to their own circumstances, which has dragged down the overall supply. Recently, foreign trade shipments have been relatively good, but domestic sales are under pressure.
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