China Carbon Black Amid Supply Tightness
Market Review: The domestic carbon black market has seen a series of price increases. The carbon black index rose from 6745.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of March to 7810 yuan/ton on March 9th, an increase of 1064.25 yuan/ton in just nine days, a rise of 15.78%. Market sentiment is bullish, and quoted prices have increased significantly. This "buff" combined with the market's upward trend has propelled the carbon black market into a takeoff phase.
Raw Materials: Turbulent Markets Provide Strong Cost Support
Recently, the domestic high-temperature coal tar market has shown strong upward momentum. Since last week, the market has entered an upward channel again, mainly driven by the rapid recovery of downstream operating rates, providing strong demand support for coal tar. As a result, supply has tightened in some areas, leading to a supply shortage.
At the same time, the price of new coal tar pitch orders has been successfully raised, with the increase exceeding that of raw material coal tar, further strengthening bullish expectations across the industry chain and resulting in overall strong market sentiment. From a macro perspective, the continued turmoil in the Middle East over the weekend disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, directly driving up crude oil and related chemical prices at the start of this week.
Driven by both rising macro risk premiums and improved supply and demand fundamentals, the domestic high-temperature coal tar market has ushered in a new round of price increases, further strengthening the cost support logic.
The spot price of anthracene oil in Shandong has also risen. Affected by the continued escalation of geopolitical factors, international crude oil prices remain high, significantly strengthening cost support. Simultaneously, the price of high-temperature coal tar has climbed in tandem, providing strong bottom support for the ethylene tar market and boosting overall market sentiment.
Against this backdrop, the spot price of anthracene oil in Shandong has also risen, further exacerbating the tight supply situation. Driven by both cost and fundamental advantages, the ethylene tar market price has shown a continuous upward trend, with market participants exhibiting positive sentiment and strong bullish outlook.
On the demand side: Improved production and a clear upward trend in tire prices
Affected by the continued escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the prices of major raw materials for tires have generally increased recently, leading to a rise in production costs. Against this backdrop, some tire manufacturers have recently issued price increase notices, covering all-steel and semi-steel tires, with most price adjustments concentrated in mid-March to early April, and increases generally ranging from 2% to 5%.
From the supply side, companies resumed production quickly after the Spring Festival. Starting from February 22nd (the sixth day of the Lunar New Year), companies gradually resumed production, and by March, production schedules had returned to normal levels, significantly boosting the overall industry operating rate.
Looking ahead, the continued rise in raw material coal tar prices provides significant cost support, further improving market sentiment. However, downstream buyers are somewhat resistant to current high prices, and the new order price increase policy for tires has not yet been fully implemented, putting pressure on high-level transactions.
Overall, new orders still need further confirmation, and future trends will require close monitoring of changes in the raw material coal tar market.
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