Natural Rubber Enters Strong (April 23)
Daily Report: Supported by Positive Factors, Natural Rubber Enters a "Strong Volatility Mode"
I. Index
On April 22nd, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $2125/ton, up $5/ton from the previous trading day.
II. Market Analysis
Futures Market
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: With Thailand's Songkran holiday approaching, high temperatures persist, and drought in the north hinders trial tapping, resulting in a situation where raw materials are essentially in demand but lack sufficient supply.
Vietnam's rubber-producing areas have not yet fully commenced tapping. Only a very small number of rubber plantations in the south have started trial tapping. Large-scale tapping is expected to begin around May Day after effective rainfall, but preparations for tapping are largely complete.
Domestic: Yunnan remains in a drought phase with no rainfall. After announcing a halt to tapping, state-owned farms have strengthened patrols to prevent continued tapping during the off-season.
Recent rainfall and temperature drops in Hainan's rubber-producing areas have facilitated the resumption of tapping operations, leading to an expansion of the tapping area and an increase in fresh latex production.
On the demand side:
It is understood that tire manufacturers' production capacity remains stable, and export orders continue to provide some support for the overall shipment of semi-steel tires. However, the price increase news has prematurely released some domestic market demand, and current domestic market shipments are slow. Companies can partially replenish previous inventory gaps, but domestic sales pressure is increasing.
Futures and Spot Prices Overview
III. Market Forecast
Today, the futures market continued its range-bound trading pattern, with an overall slightly stronger trend. The natural rubber spot market saw a slight increase. Domestic and international producing areas have not yet fully commenced tapping, resulting in very limited latex production. Coupled with continued market speculation regarding drought in producing areas, cost-side support is strengthening, and market trading activity has improved. In the short term, the natural rubber market is expected to maintain a slightly stronger, volatile trend.
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