Natural Rubber Market Analysis (February 28)

March 2, 2026, 9:20 AM

TDD-Global

4498

Guide

Highlights at a glance

The natural rubber market shows mixed signals in late February 2024. While the Qingdao STR20 price index holds steady at $2060/ton, underlying market dynamics reveal significant tensions. Supply constraints are tightening as Thailand's northern and northeastern regions cease large-scale tapping, pushing cup lump prices higher. Vietnam has fully entered its seasonal off-season, with production not expected to resume until early April. Domestically, China's Yunnan and Hainan production areas remain closed. On the demand side, post-Spring Festival recovery sees tire manufacturers gradually increasing production, though performance varies significantly between large enterprises with strong orders and smaller operations still recovering. Market outlook suggests continued pressure from high overseas raw material costs, accumulating social inventory, and limited downstream acceptance of high prices, indicating potential further declines in rubber prices despite current stability.

Index

On February 28th, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $2060/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Market Analysis

Futures Market: Closed for holiday.

Spot Market

Supply Side:

International: Large-scale tapping has ceased in northern and northeastern Thailand, leading to a stronger cup lump price. Tapping is gradually ceasing in northern and southern Thailand, resulting in a contraction in total output. Factories have restocking needs, leading to a supply shortage of latex and continuously pushing up prices. Vietnam's production areas have fully entered their seasonal off-season, with tapping expected to gradually resume in early April.

Domestic: Yunnan and Hainan production areas are currently closed for tapping.

Demand Side:

After the Spring Festival, tire supply is generally showing a gradual increase. Enterprises have resumed production in an orderly manner after the holiday, but there are still some differences in performance among enterprises.

Some large-scale enterprises have relatively sufficient orders and have increased production rapidly, resulting in smoother shipments after the holiday. Some enterprises are experiencing shortages, while some small-scale enterprises started production later, and production is still in the gradual recovery stage.

Market Outlook

The market is closed today for a holiday, and spot prices are currently stable. Southeast Asian production areas are in their seasonal low season, leading to a continued contraction in raw material supply. Overseas raw material prices are on an upward trend, resulting in high processing plant costs.

Downstream demand for high-priced raw materials is limited, and social inventory is accumulating significantly, putting downward pressure on spot prices. Further declines in rubber prices are expected.

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