Natural rubber: Market fluctuated (July 1)
Index
On July 1st, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $2200/ton, down $25/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: Southern Thailand continues to experience intermittent rainfall, resulting in lower latex production. Overseas latex demand remains at a basic level, reducing latex demand. Combined with expectations of increasing supply in producing areas each month, this pressure drags down latex prices.
Rainfall has decreased in the northeast, and processing plants maintained their rush to purchase raw materials at the beginning of the week, keeping cup lump prices high. Rainfall disturbances in Vietnam's producing areas have weakened, with fewer nighttime rains, leading to a steady recovery in latex production, which is generally in a seasonal production increase cycle.
Domestic: Raw material prices in Yunnan's producing areas have declined. Although there has been occasional light rain in the producing areas, it has not significantly impacted the overall supply of raw materials. High temperatures in Hainan's rubber-producing region have disrupted production, and the current flowering and second-leaf emergence stages of rubber trees have lowered overall latex production efficiency. Some rubber farmers in certain areas have stopped tapping, leading to a decline in fresh latex production and a significant slowdown in the seasonal release of raw materials.
On the demand side: It is understood that a few tire companies are experiencing short-term maintenance due to raw material supply issues, while most other companies are maintaining stable operations. Month-end shipments were generally weak, with varying overall shipment volumes throughout the month. Most companies experienced slow domestic sales, and although export sales provided some support, overall sales pressure remained, and some companies still have maintenance schedules scheduled for the beginning of the following month.
Futures and Spot Prices Overview
Market Outlook
Today, futures prices fluctuated within a range, while spot offers remained largely unchanged. Holders showed moderate willingness to offer. On the supply side, domestic and international producing regions are currently in their seasonal production increase period. Although there may be short-term disruptions due to rainfall, the overall supply trend remains strong, while cost support is relatively weak.
Following the previous decline in rubber prices, tire manufacturers have replenished their stocks at a faster pace than expected, and there may be concentrated deliveries this week. However, purchasing sentiment remains weak, and the short-term bearish sentiment in the natural rubber market is relatively strong, suggesting that rubber prices may fluctuate within a range.
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