Natural Rubber Price Drops (March 4)
Index
On March 4th, the Qingdao STR20 natural rubber price index was $2025/ton, down $10/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: Except for a small amount of production remaining in southern Thailand, the main producing areas in northeastern Thailand have entered the off-season. Vietnam's producing areas have also entered the off-season.
Domestic: Yunnan and Hainan have ceased tapping.
Demand Side: It is understood that most all-steel tire manufacturers have resumed production at normal levels. Overall sales after the holiday were generally weak, and the remaining inventory limited the extent to which some companies could increase their operating rates. Post-holiday dealer order meetings resulted in acceptable shipments. Entering March, most shipments are focused on fulfilling previous orders, slowing compared to the end of last month.
Futures and Spot Price Overview
Market Forecast
Today, the futures market fluctuated and weakened, with spot offers following suit, putting pressure on trade sentiment. Trading remained cautious, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Overseas raw material prices continue to rise, providing ongoing cost support from upstream sources.
However, with the tapping season approaching in domestic production areas, market expectations for increased supply are strengthening, leading to a growing bearish sentiment among industry players. Coupled with ongoing geopolitical risks overseas, tire export orders are under pressure, further dragging down rubber prices on the demand side. Natural rubber prices are likely to weaken in the short term.
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