Natural rubber: Rubber prices decline (June 26)
Index
On June 26th, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $2190/ton, down $40/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: Southern Thailand continues to experience intermittent rainfall, resulting in lower latex production. Overseas latex demand remains at a basic level, reducing latex demand. Combined with expectations of increasing supply in producing areas each month, this pressure drags down latex prices.
Rainfall has decreased in the northeast, and processing plants maintained their rush to purchase raw materials at the beginning of the week, keeping cup lump prices high. Rainfall disturbances in Vietnam have eased, with fewer nighttime rains, leading to a steady recovery in latex production, which is currently in a seasonal production increase cycle.
Domestic: Raw material prices in Yunnan producing areas have declined. Although there has been intermittent light rain in the producing areas, it has not significantly impacted the overall supply of raw materials. High temperatures in Hainan's rubber-producing region are causing disruptions, coupled with the current flowering and second leaf emergence stages of rubber trees, leading to a decrease in overall latex production efficiency. Some rubber farmers in certain areas have stopped tapping, resulting in a decline in fresh latex production and a significant slowdown in the seasonal release of raw materials.
On the demand side: It is understood that some semi-steel tire manufacturers that underwent maintenance during the Dragon Boat Festival are gradually resuming production, while a few others remain under maintenance. The overall capacity utilization rate of the industry has seen limited improvement. Currently, domestic market sales are slow, while some overseas regions still provide some support, and domestic sales pressure remains.
Futures and Spot Price Overview
Market Forecast
Today, futures prices fluctuated and weakened, with spot offers following suit. On the supply side, both domestic and international producing regions are in an increase cycle, and the trend of increased raw material supply is unlikely to change. Cost support for prices continues to weaken.
Downstream product manufacturers, with a "don't buy when prices fall" mentality, have limited enthusiasm for restocking and are cautious in their market purchases, negotiating prices only for immediate needs. The transaction center has fallen significantly, revealing a weak supply and demand situation. Prices are expected to have further room for correction.
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