Natural rubber: Volatile trend unlikely to change
Index
On June 30th, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $2225/ton, up $15/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: Southern Thailand continues to experience intermittent rainfall, resulting in lower latex production. Overseas latex demand remains at a basic level, reducing latex demand. Combined with expectations of increasing supply in producing areas each month, this pressure drags down latex prices.
Rainfall has decreased in the northeast, and processing plants maintained their rush to purchase raw materials at the beginning of the week, keeping cup lump prices high. Rainfall disturbances in Vietnam have eased, with fewer nighttime rains, leading to a steady recovery in latex production, which is currently in a seasonal production increase cycle.
Domestic: Raw material prices in Yunnan have declined. Although there has been occasional light rain in the producing areas, it has not significantly impacted the overall supply of raw materials. High temperatures in the Hainan rubber-producing region are causing disruptions, coupled with the current flowering and second leaf emergence stages of rubber trees, leading to a decrease in overall latex production efficiency. In some areas, rubber farmers have stopped tapping, resulting in a decline in fresh latex production and a significant slowdown in the seasonal output of raw materials.
On the demand side: It is understood that tire manufacturers have largely resumed operations as planned, and production is gradually recovering. However, considering the current raw material and order situation, most companies are maintaining their previous controlled production levels. Recent declines in raw material prices and increased bearish sentiment in the market are limiting company shipments to some extent.
Futures and Spot Prices Overview
Market Outlook
Today, futures prices fluctuated within a range, while spot offers remained largely unchanged. Holders showed moderate willingness to offer prices. On the supply side, domestic and international producing regions are currently in their seasonal production increase period, with a clear expectation of a concentrated release of raw materials.
Raw material prices are on a downward trend, dragging down rubber prices. Downstream buying enthusiasm is low, with demand primarily focused on immediate needs. Actual transaction volume is moderate. In the short term, upward support for the rubber market is showing signs of weakness, and overall rebound momentum is insufficient, suggesting a continued period of fluctuation.
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