Natural Rubber Daily: Risks Remain, Trade with Caution

Index

On August 24, the STR20 price index in the Qingdao natural rubber market stood at USD 2,350/ton, up USD 20/ton from the previous trading day.

STR20 price index trend in the Qingdao market

Market Analysis

Futures Market:

SHFE: RU futures trading data

INE: NR futures closing prices

Spot Market

Supply:

Overseas: In Thailand, both the southern and northeastern regions experienced varying degrees of rainfall disrupting rubber tapping. Raw material supply increased slowly, while dry rubber factories and secondary dealers actively restocked, driving raw material prices higher.

Vietnam’s production areas are in the rainy season, with frequent nighttime showers disrupting daytime tapping operations amid rising raw material costs.

Domestic: Yunnan production areas continued to see intermittent rainfall, with procurement prices trending upward; overall procurement prices remained somewhat disorderly, with both high and low levels quoted.

Hainan production areas saw more rainy weather, with a stronger impact on tapping operations; raw material supply on the island is gradually tightening.

Raw material prices (Thailand / Yunnan / Hainan)

Demand:

It is understood that enterprises under maintenance have resumed operations as planned recently, and plant production is gradually recovering, while most other enterprises have maintained their previous operating rates. However, recent upticks in natural and synthetic rubber raw material prices have heightened cost pressure; combined with weaker-than-expected overall shipments, some enterprises face further production pressure, which will limit the scope for raising operating rates.

Spot–Futures Price Overview

Product prices, spot–futures spreads and related FX rates

Outlook

Today, the futures market traded in a firm, range-bound manner, and spot offer levels edged higher. On the supply side, rainfall in Southeast Asia and domestic production areas continued to disrupt tapping, while upstream processing plants actively restocked, jointly pushing raw material prices upward. However, as both overseas and domestic markets gradually enter the peak tapping season, raw material supply is expected to increase, which may cap the upside room for rubber prices. Downstream participants remained cautious, with inquiry sentiment moderate and only small volumes of rigid-demand transactions concluded; overall trading was subdued. The near-term pace of upward price movement remains uncertain, and a staged pullback risk warrants caution.

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