PVC: The trend alternates between rises and falls
PVC Futures Analysis: On July 8th, the PVC2609 contract saw narrow-range adjustments in the night session, with relatively small price fluctuations. Prices showed a significant upward trend at the start of the morning session and continued to consolidate at high levels in the afternoon, with the high point rising slightly again.
PVC2609 contract opening price: 4433, highest price: 4509, lowest price: 4413, price difference: 96, decrease in open interest: 30705 lots, open interest: 1259921 lots, settlement price: 4469, previous settlement price: 4439, up 30, daily trading volume: 942795 lots. Evaporated funds: 3.951 billion yuan, outflow: 59.25 million yuan.
Regional Comprehensive Price Overview: Yuan/ton
PVC Spot Market: Domestic PVC market mainstream transaction prices rose slightly, with the trend alternating between increases and decreases. Price comparison: RMB 30/ton in North China, RMB 30-60/ton in East China, RMB 30-40/ton in South China, RMB 20/ton in Northeast China, RMB 20-30/ton in Central China, and RMB 30-50/ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC producers began tentatively raising ex-factory prices slightly, with increases mostly between 20-30 yuan/ton. Futures prices also saw a slight upward breakout, boosting sentiment in the spot market. Prices rose across various regions.
After futures prices rose and settled above 4450, the advantage of spot pricing diminished significantly. Specifically, in East China, the basis offer for the September contract was -(50, -100, -120, -150); in South China, it was -(+80, +50, flat, -50); in North China, it was -(80, -140, -220, -250); and in Southwest China, some September contracts were -(200, -220, 370). Spot market transactions remained at the previous level of just-in-time demand, with no significant change in the frequency of purchases.
PVC Market Outlook:
Futures Market: PVC2609 futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. On Wednesday, the high of 4509 successfully broke through the 4500 level slightly again. The price adjustment continued to revolve around the middle Bollinger Band. Technically, the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) are narrowing rapidly, with the upper band acting as resistance, causing Wednesday's high to approach the upper resistance level.
The daily KD and MACD lines continue to show a golden cross trend, and this trend is expanding, although the closing prices show different trends. Given the current price action, with Wednesday's close at a high level, short-term price action will depend on the stability above 4450 and the resistance above 4500.
Spot Market: At midday, most domestic futures contracts rose, with SC crude oil, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), and fuel oil rising by over 6%. Crude oil-related commodities saw significant gains, with oil prices climbing and further expanding their gains after the US revoked the general license authorizing the sale of Iranian crude oil. Reports of attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz have reignited market concerns about disruptions to oil tanker transport.
The general rise in crude oil-related commodities has not significantly boosted PVC prices. While both PVC futures and spot markets have seen increases, the magnitude is less than that of other commodities. There are no significant changes in the current supply and demand dynamics, but the rebound's potential is likely to be limited. Overall, the PVC spot market is expected to consolidate with a slightly bullish bias in the short term.
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