Rubber Daily Report: Volatile Trend Unlikely to Change
Index
On July 13th, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $2195/ton, down $5/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: Strong storms in parts of Thailand disrupted rubber tapping, leading to stockpiling by factories and secondary dealers, resulting in a temporary tightness in raw material supply and a renewed rise in raw material prices. Vietnam's rubber-producing regions entered their seasonal peak production period, with overall raw material supply maintaining a normal pace.
However, frequent localized thunderstorms and uneven rainfall distribution led to fluctuating rubber production. Due to the continued increase in raw material supply, processing plants adopted a wait-and-see approach, continuing to pressure prices for rubber.
Domestic: Continued rainfall in Yunnan's rubber-producing areas suppressed raw material production, limiting the amount of raw material available for processing plants, resulting in a slight increase in raw material prices. Weather improvement in Hainan's rubber-producing areas was limited, with continued rainfall disrupting new rubber production. The increase in available raw material in the market was insufficient, significantly restricting the operation of local processing plants. Some factories slightly raised prices to secure raw materials.
On the demand side: It is understood that the alternating maintenance schedules of tire manufacturers continue. After maintenance is completed, most companies resume normal production. However, some companies still have maintenance plans in the near future. Overall, the weak supply situation is unlikely to change. Some companies have promotional policies to support the market, but their impact is limited. Export shipments are acceptable, providing support for overall factory shipments.
Futures and Spot Prices Overview
Market Forecast
Today, futures prices fluctuated narrowly, while spot prices for natural rubber remained generally stable. Market inquiries were subdued. On the supply side, continuous periods of rainfall in major domestic and international producing areas have disrupted rubber tapping operations, making it difficult for latex production to fully recover.
Raw material prices remain relatively high, while downstream tire companies maintain controlled production and maintenance schedules, resulting in weak demand for raw materials. In the short term, the natural rubber market faces both bullish and bearish factors, and the market is expected to remain range-bound.
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