Carbon Black Market Weekly - No. 20260211
Carbon Black Market Analysis
1.1 Carbon Black Market Price Analysis
This week, domestic carbon black prices remained relatively stable. As of Thursday, prices were: Shandong 6800 yuan/ton; Shanxi 6350 yuan/ton; Hebei 6900 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 6850 yuan/ton; and Zhejiang 6800 yuan/ton. New orders in the carbon black market were quiet this week. The price of raw material coal tar rose slightly, but this had little impact on carbon black prices.
Due to the decline in the operating rate of the end-user tire market, pre-holiday raw material inventory was basically completed, resulting in reduced procurement throughout the period. Only small-scale restocking transactions were completed, and the transaction prices were relatively low. Market activity gradually declined. With raw material prices at high levels, cost pressure increased, and the market this week showed a pattern of high prices but low trading volume, with generally weak market activity.
1.2 Carbon Black Market Index Analysis
According to data from TuDuoDuo, as of February 12th, the carbon black price index was 6714.25, remaining stable compared to the previous period.
2. Raw Material Market Analysis
2.1 Weekly Average Price Analysis of Coal Tar
This period saw a slight rebound in the domestic high-temperature coal tar market, ending its downward trend. Auction prices in Linhuan, Anhui Province, rebounded first, boosting the confidence of coking plants. Most coking plants had no inventory pressure, while some downstream factories still had restocking needs.
Therefore, demand remained strong, and with localized supply still tight, prices in most regions rose slightly. Only in Inner Mongolia did prices decline due to the shutdown of deep processing plants in Wuhai and the approaching Spring Festival holiday, leading to reduced transportation capacity and difficulties in external shipments. However, the sales atmosphere clearly improved, and the overall market showed a stable to slightly stronger trend before the holiday.
2.2 Weekly Average Price Analysis of Anthracene Oil
This period saw relatively passive entry into the Shandong anthracene oil market by end-users. This week, the price of new orders in the high-temperature coal tar market stopped falling, which boosted the selling sentiment of anthracene oil holders. With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, logistics and transportation affected prices across different regions, leading to varying degrees of price increases for anthracene oil.
Actual prices rose in Shanxi and Shandong, while prices in Northwest China remained relatively stable. Downstream carbon black buyers continued to pressure prices, with limited pre-holiday stockpiling and overall cautious purchasing sentiment. In summary, the anthracene oil market this week was mainly driven by raw material prices, but the actual price increase was limited.
3. Carbon Black Market Outlook
Looking ahead to the next cycle, after the price of raw material coal tar rebounded, the carbon black market faced increased pressure. Furthermore, downstream new orders declined, with most orders placed at lower prices previously being fulfilled. It is expected that new order fluctuations will be limited, maintaining stable shipments.
4. Carbon Black Industry N330 Profit Analysis
Taking Shandong as an example, the price of raw material coal tar continued to rise, increasing cost pressure. New carbon black orders remained stagnant, with limited market volume, resulting in a market with prices but no sales, and widening losses. As of now, the theoretical weekly profit for the carbon black industry is -98.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.5 yuan/ton compared to last week.
5. Market Operating Rate Statistics This Week
5.1 Carbon Black Market Operating Rate Analysis
During the holiday, the operating rate of the downstream tire market dropped significantly. Most companies underwent maintenance during the holiday, leading to a decrease in market enthusiasm for raw material procurement.
The carbon black market essentially entered a shutdown state. Coupled with significant market losses, the carbon black operating rate declined. Some large factories chose to reduce production lines for maintenance, while some small factories also underwent maintenance during the holiday, resulting in a decrease in the market operating rate.
5.2 Downstream Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating rate of semi-steel tires in China is 56%. The operating rate of all-steel tires in China is 41%.
This week, the operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers declined significantly. Many companies gradually entered the Spring Festival holiday period from February 8th (the 21st day of the twelfth lunar month) to February 10th (the 23rd day of the twelfth lunar month), dragging down the overall operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers.
Semi-steel tire manufacturers showed varying performance; some gradually began their holidays around February 10th (the 23rd day of the twelfth lunar month), while others suspended operations from February 13th (the 26th day of the twelfth lunar month) to February 15th (the 28th day of the twelfth lunar month), further contributing to the decline in the operating rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers.
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