Natural Rubber Market Analysis - No. 20260211
1. Rubber Spot Market Analysis
This week, rubber futures maintained a slightly bullish and volatile pattern. Overseas raw material prices continued to rise, providing continued support for natural rubber costs. Spot market trading gradually weakened, and high inventory levels constrained rubber prices. It is expected that before the holiday, the market will be influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, and rubber prices may exhibit a slightly bullish and volatile trend.
This week, spot market quotations for natural rubber latex saw a slight increase. With the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, the circulation of spot goods at major domestic ports decreased significantly. Downstream product manufacturers closed for the holiday, and traders gradually withdrew from the market. There were almost no active quotations in the market, and prices were only for reference. Overall market trading was stagnant.
Market Forecast:
1. Limited disruption from rainfall, limited release of raw materials during the production reduction period;
2. Expected decline in the operating rate of tire sample enterprises in the next cycle;
3. Continued accumulation of inventory in Qingdao, China;
4. Exchange rates, Fed rate cuts, etc.
2. Natural Rubber Supply Analysis
2.1 Thailand Production Area
During the cycle, the purchase price of raw materials in Thailand continued to rise. Rubber tapping has ceased in northern and northeastern Thailand, leading to a relatively strong price for cup lump rubber. In southern Thailand, rubber trees are beginning to shed their leaves, resulting in decreased latex production. Factories are actively stocking up and increasing purchase prices, causing a significant rise in latex prices.
Factory raw material inventories are currently at approximately 2-3 months' worth, lower than the same period last year. Daily latex collection is noticeably declining as the tapping season nears its end. Towards the end of the week, arbitrageurs in the Chinese market increased their long positions, and Thai factory orders improved compared to the previous week, with shipments scheduled for August/September.
2.2 Vietnam Production Area
This week, the weather in Vietnam's production areas remained sunny and clear. The tapping season is nearing its end, and the supply of raw materials remains tight, keeping prices high and relatively strong.
2.3 Yunnan Production Area
This week, raw material prices in Yunnan's production areas remained stable as the region entered its off-season.
2.4 Hainan Production Area
There are currently no raw material prices available for Hainan's production areas, as the tapping season has officially begun.
4. Analysis of Natural Rubber Cost and Profit Situation
3. Analysis of Natural Rubber Cost and Profit Situation
3.1. Overseas Production Area: Thailand
The theoretical production profit of Thai STR20 rubber narrowed compared to the previous period. During the period, the price of raw material cup lump continued to rise, coupled with the appreciation of the Thai baht, increasing factory production costs and narrowing the theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber compared to the previous week.
3.2. Domestic Production Area: Hainan
Natural rubber in Hainan officially entered the off-season; local processing plants gradually ceased operations.
4. Analysis of Natural Rubber Demand
4.1. Downstream of Dry Rubber
The operating rate of semi-steel tires in China is 56%. The operating rate of all-steel tires in China is 41%.
This week, the operating rate of all-steel tires declined significantly. Many companies gradually entered the Spring Festival holiday period from February 8th (the 21st day of the twelfth lunar month) to February 10th (the 23rd day of the twelfth lunar month), dragging down the operating rate of all-steel tires significantly during the week. Semi-steel tire manufacturers showed mixed performance.
Some gradually began their holiday break around February 10th (the 23rd day of the twelfth lunar month), while others suspended operations from February 13th (the 26th day of the twelfth lunar month) to February 15th (the 28th day of the twelfth lunar month), dragging down the operating rate of semi-steel tire production.
4.2 Downstream of Concentrated Latex
It is understood that glove factories in North China basically ceased operations from February 5th to 8th, earlier than usual. Before the holiday, raw material and cost prices continued to rise, increasing the pressure on factory production costs. Factories were unwilling to stockpile too much raw material before the holiday, and their raw material and finished product inventories were mostly only enough for 1-3 months of use.
It is understood that the operating rate of foam factories in Wenzhou dropped to about 10%, with more factories suspending operations during the week, essentially bringing production to a standstill. End-user order demand remained weak, lacking substantial improvement, resulting in finished product inventory remaining at a low level, basically stockpiled according to order demand.
In addition, due to cost pressures and market conditions, it was difficult to raise prices for finished products at the end of the year, putting pressure on production profits and further weakening the overall willingness to purchase raw materials.
5. Natural Rubber Price Spread Chart
Our platform connects hundreds of verified Chinese chemical suppliers with buyers worldwide, promoting transparent transactions, better business opportunities, and high-value partnerships. Whether you are looking for bulk commodities, specialty chemicals, or customized procurement services, TDD-Global is trustworthy to be your fist choice.
