Carbon Black Monthly - No. 202602

Carbon Black Market Analysis

1. Carbon Black Market Analysis

In February, carbon black prices saw varying degrees of slight increases. As of February 25th, the average monthly price of mainstream N330 carbon black was: Shandong 6800 yuan/ton; Shanxi 6425 yuan/ton; Hebei 6900 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 6850 yuan/ton; and Zhejiang 6830 yuan/ton.

During the month, the price of raw material coal tar saw a slight increase, but its impact on carbon black was weak. Due to the decline in the operating rate of the downstream tire market, raw material inventory was basically completed before the Spring Festival, and the purchase volume decreased throughout the cycle, with only small-scale replenishment transactions and low transaction prices.

Market trading atmosphere gradually declined, and raw material market prices remained high, increasing cost pressure. After the holiday, there were no tenders for raw material coal tar, and the market participants were in a wait-and-see mode.

However, supported by downstream demand, the raw material market showed an upward trend, and the tire market gradually entered the purchasing state after resuming production. Therefore, there were positive factors supporting the market, and the carbon black market maintained a stable price.

Market Outlook: Looking ahead to next month, raw material coal tar is expected to see some price increases, supporting market sentiment from a cost perspective. Furthermore, tire manufacturers are gradually resuming production, leading to a recovery in demand. With these positive factors supporting the market, new orders for carbon black are expected to improve.

Carbon Black Monthly Average Price Comparison

Upstream Raw Material Market Analysis

2.1 High-Temperature Coal Tar Market Analysis

In February, the domestic high-temperature coal tar market continued its upward trend. Before the Spring Festival holiday, the market reversed its downward trend and saw a slight rebound. Auction prices in Linhuan, Anhui Province, rebounded first, boosting the confidence of coking plants. Most coking plants had no inventory pressure, while some downstream factories still had restocking needs. Therefore, the market demand remained strong, and with some local supply remaining tight, prices in most regions saw a slight increase.

Only in Inner Mongolia did prices decline due to the complete shutdown of deep processing facilities in Wuhai and the approaching Spring Festival holiday, resulting in reduced transportation capacity and difficulties in external shipments. However, the sales atmosphere clearly improved, and the market as a whole showed a stable to strong trend before the holiday.

Following the holiday, the market lacked price guidance and exhibited a wait-and-see attitude. As the market gradually returns to normal and downstream factories resume operations, some factories that operated normally during the holiday have largely depleted their raw material inventories. Demand for coal tar remains strong, thus the expectation for post-holiday price increases is relatively strong.

2.2 Anthracene Oil Market Analysis

The anthracene oil market experienced a significant decline in February. Before the holiday, new orders for high-temperature coal tar stopped falling, which somewhat boosted the selling sentiment of anthracene oil holders. Approaching the Spring Festival holiday, the market was affected by logistics and transportation, resulting in varying price increases for anthracene oil in different regions.

Actual prices rose in Shanxi and Shandong, while prices in Northwest China remained relatively stable. Downstream carbon black buyers continued to pressure prices, with limited pre-holiday stockpiling and overall cautious purchasing sentiment, limiting the actual price increase potential.

On the first day of resuming work after the holiday, no new orders were tendered in the high-temperature coal tar market, providing insufficient guidance for anthracene oil shipments. Industry players remained largely on the sidelines, with weak willingness to offer prices. Downstream demand is gradually recovering, with buyers continuing their just-in-time purchasing strategy. The anthracene oil market is expected to find support at its bottom in the short term.

Carbon Black Industry Profit Statistics

In February, the carbon black market saw an improvement in profit margins, but remained in a loss-making state. The price of raw material coal tar continued to rise, increasing cost pressures. New carbon black orders remained stagnant, with limited market volume. The carbon black market was characterized by high prices but low sales volume, and the market remained unprofitable. Taking N330 carbon black enterprises in Shandong as an example, the average theoretical profit margin for the carbon black industry in February was -93.33 yuan/ton.

Market Operating Rate Statistics for This Month

1. Carbon Black Market Operating Rate Analysis

The carbon black market operating rate in February was 61.93%, a slight decrease compared to January 2026. The Spring Festival holiday runs throughout February, with most companies gradually ceasing operations around February 10th and resuming production around February 22nd. This insufficient actual production days will significantly drag down overall capacity utilization throughout the month.

2. Downstream Market Operation Analysis

In February, the operating rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers in China was 47%; the operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers was 38%.

With the Spring Festival holiday, the capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers will decline to around 12% during the holiday. Finished product inventory will decrease. Before the holiday, exports from semi-steel tire manufacturers remained supported, leading to a relatively significant decrease in finished product inventory. After the holiday, as companies gradually resume production, capacity utilization will gradually increase.

During the Spring Festival, many sample companies of all-steel tire manufacturers suspended operations, resulting in a decline in all-steel tire capacity utilization to around 13%. Finished product inventory will fluctuate slightly before the holiday. From the sixth to the eighth day of the Lunar New Year, enterprises gradually resumed work and production, and the operating rate will gradually increase. Market demand will also slowly recover. Considering the pressure of social inventory before the holiday, the finished product inventory of production enterprises may show a trend of first rising and then falling after the holiday.

Production

China's carbon black production in February 2026 is estimated at 464,400 tons, a decrease of 61,000 tons from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 11.48%.

Import and Export Data and Trend Chart

According to customs data, my country's carbon black imports in December were 23,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 45.74% and a year-on-year increase of 0.28%. The cumulative import volume was 313,000 tons, a cumulative import volume increase of 3.66% compared with the same period last year.

According to customs data, my country's carbon black exports in December 2025 totaled 115,700 tons, up 21.95% month-on-month and 9.32% year-on-year. The cumulative exports reached 1,178,200 tons, up 21.95% compared to the same period last year.

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