Rubber Special Issue - No. 202602
Analysis of Natural Rubber Market Prices
Dry Rubber
In February, natural rubber prices showed a fluctuating upward trend. Before the Spring Festival, overseas producing regions entered their off-season, resulting in a substantial reduction in global supply. The continued rise in raw material prices provided bottom support for rubber prices.
With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, downstream tire factories gradually shut down for the holidays, leading to a temporary weakening of natural rubber demand. High inventory levels also exerted short-term downward pressure on the natural rubber market. Against the backdrop of tightening supply and weakening demand, rubber prices fluctuated at high levels before the holiday.
After the Spring Festival holiday, Thai producing regions entered their seasonal low production period, resulting in insufficient raw material supply and a continued rise in procurement prices. Coupled with a significant year-on-year and month-on-month decrease in Thai natural rubber exports in January, this boosted market confidence. The post-holiday commodity market sentiment was favorable, and the convergence of multiple positive factors led to a short-term strong performance in the natural rubber market.
Natural Latex
In February, the average spot price of imported Thai bulk natural rubber latex in the Zhejiang market of China showed an upward trend. Before the Spring Festival, major Southeast Asian producing regions entered a production reduction phase, leading to a continuous rise in raw material latex purchase prices.
International latex processing plants also raised their USD-denominated shipment prices, strengthening cost support. Meanwhile, limited spot supply in consuming regions drove a relatively strong upward trend in domestic spot prices. However, as the Spring Festival holiday approached, downstream product manufacturers gradually closed for the holidays, and traders also withdrew from the market.
There were fewer proactive offers, with only a few quotes available for reference, and actual transactions stagnated. After the Spring Festival holiday, futures and international markets rose strongly, creating a bullish market sentiment.
Supply and cost support strengthened, and traders generally raised their offers. Downstream product manufacturers had not yet resumed production and were mostly hesitant about the price increases, resulting in weak buying interest and negotiated transactions.
Market Forecast:
1. In March, global supply is in a low-production transition phase, providing strong cost support.
2. There is an expectation of an upward revision in the operating rate of sample tire manufacturers in March.
3. There is an expectation of continued accumulation of natural rubber social inventory in March.
2. Rubber Market Price Comparison This Month
International Market
Domestic Market
3. Rubber Market Price Analysis Charts
Natural Rubber Supply Analysis
1. Thailand Production Area
Before the Spring Festival in February, tapping ceased in northern and northeastern Thailand, leading to a relatively strong cup lump price. In southern Thailand, rubber trees began to shed their leaves, resulting in a decline in latex production. Factories actively stocked up, increasing purchase prices, leading to a significant increase in latex prices. Thai factories' raw material inventories are generally around 2-3 months, lower than the same period last year.
Currently, the daily rubber collection volume has declined significantly as tapping nears its end. At the end of the week, arbitrage positions in the Chinese market increased, and Thai factory orders improved month-on-month, with factory shipments scheduled for August/September. After the Spring Festival, in mid-to-late February, except for a small amount of production remaining in southern Thailand, the northeastern Thai production area has entered the off-season.
2. Vietnam Production Area
Before the Spring Festival in February, the production area had entered the final stage of the off-season, with tapping work basically completed. The supply in the market remained tight, and raw material prices remained high and strong. After the Spring Festival, the Vietnamese production area officially entered the off-season.
3. Yunnan Production Area
Tapping in Yunnan province ceased entirely in February.
4. Hainan Production Area
Tapping in Hainan province was suspended in February.
Imports and Exports
According to customs data, China's imports of natural rubber (including technical classifications, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) reached 803,400 tons in December, an increase of 24.84% month-on-month and 25.4% year-on-year. Cumulative imports from January to December 2025 totaled 6,675,100 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 17.94%.
China's exports of natural rubber (including technical classifications, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) reached 8,200 tons in December, a decrease of 0.52% month-on-month and 12.23% year-on-year. Cumulative exports from January to December 2025 totaled 99,900 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 18.84%.
Technical Classification of Natural Rubber
In December 2025, China's imports of natural rubber, including technical classifications, totaled 199,300 tons, up 18.10% month-on-month and 66.34% year-on-year.
Natural Latex
In December 2025, imports of natural latex totaled 58,100 tons, up 23.15% month-on-month and 11.64% year-on-year.
Natural Rubber Smoked Sheets
In December 2025, imports of natural rubber smoked sheets totaled 45,900 tons, up 29.46% month-on-month and 103.05% year-on-year.
Mixtures of Natural and Synthetic Rubber
In December 2025, China's imports of mixtures of natural and synthetic rubber totaled 396,300 tons, up 31.16% month-on-month and 4.55% year-on-year.
2. Import and Export Trends
Global Rubber Production
The latest ANRPC report for December 2025 forecasts that global natural rubber production in December is expected to decrease by 10.8% to 1.416 million tons, a 4.7% decrease from the previous month; natural rubber consumption is expected to increase by 2.9% to 1.307 million tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous month.
Global natural rubber production in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.4% year-on-year to 14.9 million tons. Specifically, Thailand is expected to increase by 0.02%, Indonesia by 4.3%, China by 5.5%, India by 1.7%, Vietnam by 3.1%, Malaysia by 14.6%, Cambodia by 4.6%, Myanmar by 15.5%, and other countries by 9.2%.
Global natural rubber consumption in 2025 is expected to decrease by 0.7% year-on-year to 15.344 million tons. Among them, China saw a 0.3% increase, India a 0.8% decrease, Thailand a 1.5% decrease, Indonesia a 19.3% decrease, Malaysia a 0.1% decrease, Vietnam a 14% increase, Sri Lanka a 3.5% decrease, Cambodia a significant 111.4% increase, and other countries a 2.1% decrease.
Note: Global natural rubber consumption data is based on the latest data and is for reference only.
Natural Rubber Inventory Analysis
Qingdao's inventory maintained an accumulation trend in February. Inventory is still in a seasonal accumulation trend, with overall inflows to Qingdao far exceeding outflows. During the holiday, overseas goods will continue to arrive at ports, and after the holiday, inventory accumulation will continue.
Natural Rubber Demand Analysis
Tires
In February, the operating rate of semi-steel tires in China was 47%; the operating rate of all-steel tires in China was 38%.
With the Spring Festival holiday, semi-steel tire companies gradually suspended operations, and the capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tires will decline to around 12% during the Spring Festival. Finished product inventory has decreased somewhat.
Before the holiday, exports from semi-steel tire companies were still supported, resulting in a relatively significant decrease in finished product inventory. Following the holiday, businesses are gradually resuming operations, and capacity utilization rates will gradually increase.
During the Spring Festival, many sample companies in the all-steel tire industry suspended operations, causing the capacity utilization rate to decline to around 13%. Finished product inventory fluctuated slightly before the holiday. From the sixth to the eighth day of the Lunar New Year, businesses will gradually resume operations, and the operating rate will gradually increase.
Market demand will also slowly recover. Considering the pressure from pre-holiday social inventory, finished product inventory at manufacturing companies may show a trend of first rising and then falling after the holiday.
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