Carbon Black Prices (May 18)
Costs dragged down carbon black prices again.
This week, the downward trend in domestic carbon black prices remained unchanged. By the end of the week, prices were: Shandong 7000 yuan/ton; Shanxi 6800 yuan/ton; Hebei 7100 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 7100 yuan/ton; and Zhejiang 7000 yuan/ton.
Raw material side: Weak coal tar prices significantly dragged down costs.
At the beginning of the week, the domestic high-temperature coal tar market was relatively quiet. With the implementation of the third round of coke price increases, coking plants maintained high operating rates, and the supply of high-temperature coal tar continued to rise. Although downstream operating rates increased significantly, the performance of downstream products was poor, making it difficult to change the weak market situation for coal tar. Towards the end of the week, auctions in most major producing areas resulted in few or no bids, with a significant drop in prices in Shanxi. As downstream factories lost their willingness to hold firm on prices, the market returned to rationality, and the decline in market quotations widened. Although downstream operating rates have recently increased, the overall performance of products is sluggish, resulting in strong downward pressure from downstream buyers and a clear downward trend in the market.
Domestic anthracene oil prices saw a slight decline. At the beginning of the week, the lack of new order prices for high-temperature coal tar, a key raw material, provided insufficient guidance for anthracene oil producers, leading to a wait-and-see attitude among manufacturers. Downstream carbon black buyers were also hesitant, resulting in profit pressure and continued low raw material entry prices, keeping the anthracene oil market relatively stable. However, towards the end of the week, new order prices for high-temperature coal tar gradually emerged, and the overall decline in prices intensified. Anthracene oil manufacturers' willingness to sell was suppressed, and they are currently observing the market and offering prices. Downstream carbon black buyers showed a tendency to pressure prices and did not actively enter the market to purchase. The anthracene oil market is expected to maintain its downward trend in the short term.
Demand Side: Resumption of Work and Production Improves
With the end of the May Day holiday, most sampled enterprises that had undergone maintenance resumed production around the 6th. Export orders were performing well, and coupled with low previous finished product inventory, most enterprises quickly resumed production, leading to a significant increase in overall operating rates.
Operating Rates: Improved Profits Lead to Increased Factory Operations
The price decline in raw material coal tar has widened. With previous carbon black orders fulfilled, new order prices are currently under negotiation, leading to an increase in carbon black market profits. However, further declines in carbon black prices are expected, increasing the probability of continued profit losses.
Domestic carbon black market enterprises are increasing their operating rates. Recently, a major plant in Shandong has resumed normal production, while some enterprises are undergoing maintenance. Enterprises in Shanxi and Hebei are operating normally, resulting in an increase in carbon black plant operating rates.
Overall Outlook: Raw Material Pressures Make Carbon Black's Weakness Unresolved
Looking ahead, the downward trend in raw material coal tar prices is unlikely to stop, further weakening the carbon black market. After the tire market's phase of restocking, a wait-and-see attitude prevails, with stagnant actual transactions and a weak trading atmosphere. The carbon black market is unlikely to see a rebound in the short term, and market prices are likely to remain weak.
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