Carbon Black Special Issue - No. 20260305

Carbon Black Market Analysis

1.1 Carbon Black Market Price Analysis

This week, domestic carbon black prices saw a significant increase. As of Thursday, prices were 7250 yuan/ton in Shandong; 6900 yuan/ton in Shanxi; 7400 yuan/ton in Hebei; 7400 yuan/ton in Guangzhou; and 7350 yuan/ton in Zhejiang. New orders for carbon black rose sharply this week, driven by increased bidding prices for raw material coal tar. However, the downstream tire market was affected by the Middle East situation, leading to a significant increase in costs.

Consequently, buyers showed less enthusiasm for purchasing carbon black this week, adopting a wait-and-see attitude and anticipating price drops. They were resistant to high prices. However, with raw material prices such as coal tar, anthracene oil, and ethylene tar all rising, carbon black manufacturers were temporarily not shipping at low prices, resulting in significant negotiation pressure in the market and a slow increase in actual transaction volume.

1.2 Carbon Black Market Index Analysis

According to data from TuDuoDuo, as of March 5th, the carbon black price index was 7227.5, an increase of 513.25 compared to the previous period.

2. Raw Material Market Analysis

2.1 Weekly Average Price Analysis of Coal Tar

This period saw a significant increase in the domestic high-temperature coal tar market. Since last week, the coal tar market has seen another upward trend. Due to the rapid increase in downstream operating rates, the demand for coal tar is strong, leading to a tight supply in some areas. Furthermore, the price of new coal pitch orders has been successfully adjusted upwards, with the increase exceeding that of raw material coal tar. Therefore, the market sentiment is bullish.

Over the weekend, the turmoil in the Middle East and the closure of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz triggered a series of price increases for crude oil and chemical products. Driven by this force majeure factor, the domestic high-temperature coal tar market saw a larger increase this week, with prices returning to the high levels seen in the same period of 2025. In the short term, positive market factors continue to develop, so the coal tar market will temporarily maintain its upward trend, but the momentum for further increases will weaken.

2.2 Anthracene Oil Weekly Average Price Analysis

This period saw significant upward potential in the spot price of anthracene oil in Shandong, while end-user participation was relatively passive. Looking at this period, influenced by the situation in the Middle East, the price of high-temperature coal tar in the raw material market saw a widening increase.

The operating rate of coal tar deep processing plants fluctuated relatively little during the period, resulting in minimal impact on anthracene oil supply. The strong raw material price trend significantly boosted the selling sentiment of anthracene oil holders. Currently, there is considerable room for price increases in Shandong, but downstream carbon black enterprises have not yet entered the market to take over.

Overall, the downstream market has seen a sharp increase in carbon black market offers, making actual transactions difficult. Some anthracene oil hydrogenation enterprises are preparing to resume operations, and their short-term acceptance of high raw material prices is limited. Therefore, in summary, the upward trend in the anthracene oil market this period is already established, but the specific extent of the increase remains to be discussed.

3. Carbon Black Market Outlook

Looking ahead to the next cycle, the domestic raw material coal tar market is expected to continue rising, with costs remaining favorable for offers. However, the tire market is putting downward pressure on prices at high levels.

Furthermore, the increase in tire costs is hindering price increases in end-products, which in turn puts downward pressure on the raw material carbon black market. It is expected that the market will remain stagnant at high levels next week.

4. Carbon Black Industry N330 Profit Analysis

Taking Shandong as an example, the bidding price of raw material coal tar has risen significantly. With increased cost pressure, new orders in the carbon black market have followed suit, but the increase in actual orders is narrower than the increase in offers.

Therefore, market transactions are significantly suppressed by downstream demand, resulting in the carbon black market remaining in a loss-making situation. As of now, the theoretical weekly profit for the carbon black industry is -211.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous cycle.

5. Market Operating Rate Statistics This Week

5.1 Carbon Black Market Operating Rate Analysis

The operating load of sample carbon black enterprises is gradually increasing. Small and medium-sized enterprises that underwent maintenance earlier are gradually resuming production, and large manufacturers have completed their maintenance lines, leading to an increase in the market's operating rate.

5.2 Downstream Market Operating Rate Analysis

The operating rate of semi-steel tires in China is 75%. The operating rate of all-steel tires in China is 65%.

Tire companies actively resumed production after the holiday, and most companies have returned to normal levels this week, boosting the overall operating rate.

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