Carbon Black: Upstream and Downstream Game
01 Carbon Black Index
According to data from TuDuoDuo, the carbon black price index was 7438 on July 15th, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day.
02 Carbon Black Market Price
03 Analysis of Factors Affecting the Carbon Black Market
1. Upstream Raw Materials: Coal tar prices in Shandong were 4160 yuan/ton; in Shanxi, 4260 yuan/ton; and in Hebei, 4150 yuan/ton. The domestic high-temperature coal tar market remains largely in a wait-and-see mode, and the market is expected to remain bearish in the short term, with prices likely to continue to decline.
2. Carbon Black Supply: The operating rate of sample enterprises in the domestic carbon black market has declined. A plant in East China resumed operation after maintenance, and other plants in East China were also undergoing maintenance. While the operating rate in the region has not fluctuated significantly, the recent pressure on carbon black shipments has been substantial, leading some large plants to reduce their operating rates, resulting in a decrease in the market's willingness to operate.
3. Downstream Demand: It is understood that overall order performance for enterprises is average, with no significant increase in orders. Furthermore, market sales remain hampered, and enterprises' actual inventory reduction efforts are limited, resulting in continued sales pressure. Additionally, geopolitical conflicts have led to price increases for some raw materials, raising costs and further compressing profit margins, potentially increasing production pressure on enterprises. Production control is expected to continue.
04. Market Outlook
Currently, the raw material coal tar market is mainly in a wait-and-see mode, without a significant downward trend. Costs are expected to remain relatively firm in the short term, but a strong bearish sentiment persists. Downstream buyers are mainly waiting for prices to fall, inquiries have declined, and actual transactions are limited. Negotiations between upstream and downstream players are ongoing, and the carbon black market is expected to remain weak in the short term.
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