Natural rubber: Rubber prices are trending upward
Index
On July 15th, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $2230/ton, up $15/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: Strong storms in parts of Thailand disrupted rubber tapping, leading to stockpiling by factories and secondary dealers, resulting in a temporary tightness in raw material supply and further price increases. Vietnam's rubber-producing regions entered their seasonal peak production period, with overall raw material supply maintaining a normal pace. However, frequent localized thunderstorms and uneven rainfall distribution caused fluctuations in tapping output. Due to the continued increase in raw material supply, processing plants adopted a wait-and-see approach, continuing to pressure prices for rubber.
Domestic: Continued rainfall in Yunnan's rubber-producing areas suppressed raw material production, limiting the amount of raw material available for processing plants, leading to a slight increase in raw material prices. Weather improvement in Hainan's rubber-producing areas was limited, with continued rainfall disrupting new rubber production, resulting in insufficient replenishment of raw materials.
On the demand side: It is understood that overall order performance for enterprises is average, with no significant increase in orders. Furthermore, market obstacles to shipments persist, and actual inventory reduction efforts by enterprises are limited, resulting in continued sales pressure. Additionally, geopolitical conflicts have led to price increases for some raw materials, raising costs and further compressing profit margins, potentially increasing production pressure on enterprises. Production control is expected to continue.
Futures and Spot Prices Overview
Market Forecast
Today, the futures market continued its range-bound trading pattern, with cautious trading and a strong wait-and-see attitude. On the supply side, periodic rainfall in major producing areas, coupled with active restocking by upstream factories, limited increases in raw material supply and maintained high procurement prices, continuing to provide cost support for rubber prices.
However, downstream product manufacturers are resistant to purchasing raw materials after the price increase, mainly engaging in transactions based on immediate needs. The price center has risen slightly, and short-term positive factors for natural rubber are gradually emerging, suggesting that rubber prices may show a slightly stronger trend.
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