Carbon Black Weekly Report: Market Declines
Carbon Black Market Analysis
1.1 Carbon Black Market Price Analysis
This week, domestic carbon black prices showed a significant downward trend. As of Thursday, prices were: Shandong 7450 yuan/ton; Shanxi 7300 yuan/ton; Hebei 7500 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 7600 yuan/ton; and Zhejiang 7450 yuan/ton. The price of new orders for raw material coal tar fell further this week. Although prices of deep-processed small products and industrial naphthalene rose due to a sharp increase in crude oil prices, the main downstream products, coal tar pitch and carbon black, remained weak.
Therefore, bearish factors still dominated the market, and coal tar prices continued to decline. Downstream buyers were mainly waiting for prices to fall, inquiries decreased, and actual transactions were limited. Negotiations between upstream and downstream players were ongoing, and the carbon black market is expected to remain weak in the short term.
1.2 Carbon Black Market Index Analysis
According to data from TuDuoDuo, as of July 16th, the carbon black price index was 7438, a decrease of 191.5 from the previous period.
2. Raw Material Market Analysis
2.1 Weekly Average Price Analysis of Coal Tar
This period saw a downward trend in the domestic high-temperature coal tar market. At the beginning of the week, coal tar prices remained relatively stable, but towards the end of the week, new orders for high-temperature coal tar were released, leading to a significant widening of the price decline.
Although prices of deep-processed small products and industrial naphthalene rose sharply, the prices of major downstream products such as coal tar pitch, carbon black, and anthracene oil all trended downwards. Downstream factories showed strong selling pressure, therefore, the market is expected to remain predominantly downward in the short term.
2.2 Weekly Average Price Analysis of Anthracene Oil
This period saw a decline in some prices in the domestic anthracene oil market. As new orders for high-temperature coal tar were released, the overall price showed a wide decline. Anthracene oil manufacturers were very cautious in their quotations, showing little willingness to actively lower prices significantly. Downstream users also adopted a wait-and-see approach due to weak demand. The anthracene oil market is expected to remain at a low level in the short term.
3. Carbon Black Market Outlook
Looking ahead to the next cycle, the raw material market is expected to see a wider decline in prices, negatively impacting costs. New order negotiations are also anticipated to decrease, and downstream inquiries are weakening, with buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach. Further price reductions in new orders are expected.
4. Carbon Black Industry N330 Profit Analysis
Taking Shandong as an example, the price decline in new orders for raw material coal tar has widened, offering cost advantages to the market. However, negotiations for new carbon black orders are stalled. While quoted prices are declining, downstream buyers are still pressuring for lower prices, and actual orders are under negotiation. Therefore, theoretically, the market is currently in a profitable position. As of now, the theoretical weekly profit for the carbon black industry is 45 yuan/ton.
5. Market Operating Rate Statistics This Week
5.1 Carbon Black Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating rate of sample enterprises in the domestic carbon black market was 67%. The operating rate of sample enterprises in the domestic carbon black market declined slightly. Due to recent pressure on carbon black shipments and accumulated inventory, some large plants in the region reduced their operating rates. Meanwhile, a plant in East China was still undergoing maintenance. Overall, the operating rate of carbon black enterprises declined this week.
5.2 Downstream Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating rate of semi-steel tires in China was 57%. The operating rate of all-steel tires in China was 63%.
This week, the tire operating rate showed divergence. Some sample enterprises in the semi-steel tire sector had 3-5 days of maintenance scheduled, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. Regarding all-steel tires, some sample enterprises that had previously undergone maintenance gradually resumed production at normal levels, leading to a recovery in the capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises.
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