Natural Rubber: Bullish Factors Lift Market(Sep 10)
Natural Rubber Weekly Report: Multiple Bullish Factors Converge, Market Momentum Unstoppable
1. Rubber Spot Market Analysis
This week, natural rubber prices continued to be pulled to high levels. Currently, bullish factors in the natural rubber market continue to resonate, and market support is constantly consolidating. On the cost side, raw material prices in domestic and international production areas continue to rise, processing plants show high enthusiasm for replenishment, raw material procurement pace is accelerating, and the cost support for natural rubber has strengthened again. On the inventory side, spot inventory continues its destocking trend, and supply pressure is steadily easing. On the demand side, downstream rigid-demand replenishment continues to be fulfilled, providing a floor for rubber prices. Additionally, the related product synthetic rubber is showing strong upward momentum, further boosting market sentiment for long positions.
This week, the natural latex market presented a tug-of-war pattern of "tight supply supporting the floor, weak demand pressing from above." Supply-side support is strong: arrivals of imported concentrated latex at domestic main ports remain at year-on-year lows, spot supply is highly dependent on domestic concentrated latex, and inventory pressure in sales regions is not significant. Combined with renewed rainfall disruptions in Hainan production areas, tapping operations are limited, and raw material purchase prices are prone to rising but resistant to falling within a high range, providing strong cost-side support. The resonance of tight supply and rising costs has driven the futures market center of gravity continuously upward, and short-term market conditions are expected to maintain an upward oscillating trend. However, the upside space faces demand-side constraints: downstream product enterprises face poor transmission of price increases from finished goods, profit margins are squeezed, factory procurement confidence is dampened, most maintain rigid-demand procurement, and willingness for active inventory building is insufficient. The negative feedback effect from the demand side continues to manifest, which will exert pressure on further upward movement of rubber prices.
Market Outlook:
1. Rainfall conditions in domestic production areas improve, with rising expectations for increased output;
2. Operating rates for sampled tire enterprises are expected to increase next week;
3. Qingdao, China inventory continues its destocking trend;
4. Macroeconomic environment disturbances.
2. Natural Rubber Supply Analysis
2.1 Thailand Production Area
Rainfall increased in Thai production areas during the period, particularly in the northeastern regions where rainfall was excessive. Raw material release was slow, and dry rubber factories showed active willingness to purchase at premium prices, continuously bidding up raw material prices. Thai factory raw material inventory is maintained at approximately 2-3 months, with a seasonal slight increase in raw material reserves.
2.2 Vietnam Production Area
This week, the Vietnam production area maintained its rainy season status, with predominantly scattered rainfall and no large-scale continuous storms. Daytime tapping operations could be maintained, but repeated rainfall disruptions meant that the pace of new rubber release fell short of seasonal expectations. Cup lump purchase prices remained at previous high levels, and high raw material costs continued to squeeze processing plant margins.
2.3 Yunnan Production Area
Weather conditions in the Yunnan production area are acceptable, with latex volumes gradually increasing. However, cup lump is expected to increase in volume next week, and quotations are somewhat disorderly. Purchase prices vary across regions and are for reference only.
2.4 Hainan Production Area
This week, the Hainan production area experienced localized rainfall impacts, but overall weather conditions improved compared to the previous period. Combined with high prices stimulating tapping enthusiasm, raw materials on the island are gradually being produced and released, with new rubber supply showing a month-on-month increasing trend. Given the expectation of continued rainfall disruptions in the production areas, local processing plants maintain good production enthusiasm, with strengthened sentiment for competitive raw material purchases at premium prices, and the center of raw material purchase prices continues to be adjusted upward.
3. Natural Rubber Cost and Profit Analysis
3.1 International Production Area: Thailand
The theoretical production profit for Thai STR20 continued to improve month-on-week. During this period, cup lump prices moved higher, further increasing factory raw material cost pressure. Futures prices rose substantially, with Chinese arbitrage positions adding to long positions and purchasing goods, factories quoting at high prices, and finished product gains far exceeding the raw material side. The theoretical processing margin for Thai standard rubber continued to recover month-on-week.
3.2 Domestic Production Area: Hainan
This week, the theoretical production profit for Hainan domestically produced state-owned concentrated latex rebounded. During the week, futures prices rose broadly, arbitrage position willingness to add increased, driving higher orders at local concentrated latex processing plants and upward profit margin recovery.
4. Natural Rubber Demand Analysis
4.1 Dry Rubber Downstream
The operating rate for Chinese semi-steel tires was 66%. The operating rate for Chinese all-steel tires was 65%.
During the period, the resumption of production at semi-steel tire maintenance enterprises drove a recovery in operating rates, but most enterprises remain in a production-control state, limiting the overall operating rate improvement. For all-steel tires, some maintenance enterprises resumed production, but with recent continuous increases in raw material prices, certain specifications are operating at a loss, and enterprises' willingness to control production has strengthened, dragging operating rates lower.
4.2 Concentrated Latex Downstream
It is reported that operating rates at glove factories in North China are approximately at the 50-60% level. Finished product export orders are relatively stable, but domestic market demand is rather weak, with some factories reporting that domestic orders have shrunk by nearly half year-on-year. Currently, factory shipments are primarily focused on depleting previous glove inventory, with limited incremental new orders. Under the dual pressure of rising raw material costs and low-end product market impact, factory profit margins are compressed. Facing high-priced raw materials, procurement attitudes are cautious, raw material inventory is generally low, and market activity is limited to small-scale rigid-demand replenishment, with no willingness for large-scale hoarding.
Operating rates at Wenzhou foam factories are approximately 50%. After the domestic foam products industry underwent a phase of capacity adjustment, excess capacity has been essentially cleared out. Some processing factories have successively added new rubber yarn production lines to optimize their product structure. Influenced by the terminal consumption environment, factory conventional finished product order performance falls short of expectations, with the proportion of some multi-specification customized orders gradually increasing. Most factories had previously completed partial raw material reserves in advance. Facing the recent impact of raw material price increases, factories show strong reluctance toward high prices, and actual order procurement willingness is sluggish.
5. Natural Rubber Price Spread Statistics
6. Industry News This Week
Luwei Rubber 1 Million Solid Tire Per Year Project Completes Filing
Recently, Shandong Luwei Rubber Technology Co., Ltd.'s "1 Million Solid Tires Per Year Project" officially completed filing. The project has a total investment of 100 million yuan and is located south of Beiguo Road, Dawang Town, Guangrao County, west of Changshen Expressway. The project plans to lease a 2,650-square-meter production workshop and procure 221 sets of core production equipment including internal mixers, open mills, forming machines, vulcanizing machines, and shot blasting machines. Upon completion, it will produce 1 million solid tires annually (approximately 60,900 tons).
Luwei Rubber was established in June 2025 with a registered capital of 3 million yuan. Its main business covers rubber products, tire manufacturing, and new materials technology R&D.
Solid tires, with characteristics such as tear resistance, puncture resistance, and strong load-bearing capacity, are widely used in industrial scenarios including forklifts, port handling, and mining vehicles. The global solid tire market is projected to reach approximately 3.43 billion USD in 2026, with potential growth to 4.87 billion USD by 2034. The project's location in Guangrao, a major tire industry hub, will further enrich the local specialty tire capacity matrix and support the improvement and upgrading of the regional rubber tire industrial chain.
Dongsheng Rubber 18 Million Motorcycle Tire Expansion Project Completes Filing
Recently, Shandong Dongsheng Rubber Technology Co., Ltd.'s new construction project officially completed filing. The project is located in the Fulai Mountain Industrial Park, Juxian County, Rizhao City. The core construction content includes two major components: first, adding 18 million units of annual capacity for radial motorcycle tires on the existing production line; second, simultaneously building supporting facilities for 80,000 tons/year of high-strength reclaimed rubber production.
Unlike the common single-finished-tire expansion model in the industry, this project simultaneously incorporates reclaimed rubber capacity. Self-produced reclaimed rubber can directly supply motorcycle tire production, forming a closed-loop industrial chain of "reclaimed raw materials - rubber products - complete equipment," which both reduces raw material costs and aligns with the green direction of waste tire resource utilization.
Shandong Dongsheng Rubber Technology Co., Ltd. was established in 2003 and is located in Juxian County, Rizhao. It is a national high-tech enterprise in the domestic waste tire resource comprehensive utilization industry that integrates equipment production and manufacturing. The company's main products fall into three categories: rubber equipment R&D and manufacturing, reclaimed rubber, and rubber products - motorcycle tires. The enterprise simultaneously operates in three major business areas: rubber intelligent equipment, reclaimed rubber, and motorcycle tires, with long-term deep cultivation in the waste tire resource utilization field. Currently, the enterprise holds 6 authorized invention patents and 48 utility model patents. Upon completion of this expansion, the enterprise's two-wheel radial tire supply capacity will be significantly enhanced.
120,000-Ton Waste Tire Resource Utilization Project Tender Announcement
Recently, Binzhou Wanlong Zhongwei Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. released a public tender announcement for its 120,000-ton/year waste tire resource comprehensive utilization project. The project is located in the Zhanhua Economic Development Zone, Binzhou City, with a total investment of 85 million yuan, funded by the enterprise itself.
The project mainly involves new construction of raw material preprocessing workshops, pyrolysis and carbon black refining workshops, canteens, utility works, gatehouses, power distribution rooms, central control rooms, raw material warehouses, production auxiliary buildings, and equipment and pipeline installation and commissioning, with a planned construction period of 180 calendar days. The project adopts a labor and materials inclusive contract model, with quality standards rated as qualified.
This project does not accept consortium bidding. Bidders must possess Grade 1 (old) / Grade A (new) general contracting qualification for construction engineering and a valid safety permit. The project manager must hold a Grade 1 Constructor certificate in construction and a Type B safety officer certificate. Tender documents are available from September 3 to September 9, with bidding and bid opening at 09:00 on September 23, 2026, in Jinan City.
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