Coke demand is still relatively weak, and the coking coal industry has been bearish recently.
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Tuesday, Jan 23, 2024 at 5:32 PM
The demand for coke continues to weaken, inventories in the lower reaches of the industrial chain continue to rise, and steel mills are strongly willing to lower coke prices. This week, the second round of coke shipments has landed. The closing price of quasi-first-class wet quenching coke in Rizhao Port is 2,340 yuan/ton, and the ex-warehouse price is 2,300 yuan/ton. tons, equivalent to a warehouse receipt cost of about 2,510 yuan/ton. After the second round of coke price cuts, the main coke contract is still at a slight discount.

The demand for coke continues to weaken, inventories in the lower reaches of the industrial chain continue to rise, and steel mills are strongly willing to lower coke prices. This week, the second round of coke shipments has landed. The closing price of quasi-first-class wet quenching coke in Rizhao Port is 2,340 yuan/ton, and the ex-warehouse price is 2,300 yuan/ton. tons, equivalent to a warehouse receipt cost of about 2,510 yuan/ton. After the second round of coke price cuts, the main coke contract is still at a slight discount.


In terms of industrial data, according to statistics from the Iron and Steel Federation, as of January 12, the average daily coke output of large-scale coking plants totaled 1.149 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3,000 tons; the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel plants on the demand side was 2.2079 million tons, a month-on-month increase. 26,200 tons, coke demand is still relatively weak.


From the perspective of market atmosphere, many places in China have previously announced property market support measures, but the market response has been limited. The relative benefit lies in the 100 billion structural monetary policy tool, which provides financial support for housing rental operators in pilot cities to acquire existing housing and market-oriented revitalization of existing housing. , expand the supply of rental housing, and the market atmosphere will definitely pick up.


In general, coke maintains a game pattern of strong expectations and weak reality. The recent reappearance of supportive policies has driven coke to stop falling and rebound. However, the sustainability of the upward trend remains to be seen. In the short term, it is recommended to maintain a range-based approach and pay close attention to the dynamics of policies to stabilize growth.


According to foreign coal news, China is considering issuing ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to provide funds for projects related to food, energy, supply chains and urbanization. The market is expected to see steady growth again, driving the decline of black commodities to slow down. On the industrial side, coal mines that completed last year's production targets have resumed production one after another after the holiday. Safety supervision issues have not yet had any further impact on coking coal production. China's coking coal production is basically stable. The average daily traffic volume of Mongolian coal at port 288 on the import side remains above 1,000 vehicles. Overall, coking coal supply is operating at a high level.


On the demand side, with the implementation of the second round of coke price cuts, the losses of coke companies have further increased. The losses per ton of coke of 30 sample coke companies in mainland China have reached 64 yuan/ton. Coke production is low, and the demand for coking coal is weak.


Looking at specific data, as of January 12, the average daily output of clean coal from 110 coal washing plants in mainland China was 605,100 tons, an increase of 33,400 tons from the previous month; the average daily coke output of large sample coking plants totaled 1.149 million tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week. Ton. Generally speaking, the coking coal industry is bearish. However, the recent reappearance of supportive policies and strong macroeconomic expectations have supported the rebound in coking coal futures prices. It is recommended to maintain a short-term thinking and continue to pay attention to the dynamics of policies to stabilize growth.


Coke: Coke demand continues to weaken, inventories in the lower reaches of the industrial chain continue to rise, and steel mills are strongly willing to lower coke prices. This week, the second round of coke shipments has landed. The closing price of quasi-first-class wet quenching coke in Rizhao Port is 2,340 yuan/ton, and the ex-warehouse price is 2,300 yuan/ton. yuan/ton, which is equivalent to a warehouse receipt cost of about 2,510 yuan/ton. After the second round of coke price cuts, the main coke contract is still at a slight discount.


In terms of industrial data, according to statistics from the Iron and Steel Federation, as of January 12, the average daily coke output of large-scale coking plants totaled 1.149 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3,000 tons; the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel plants on the demand side was 2.2079 million tons, a month-on-month increase. 26,200 tons, coke demand is still relatively weak.


From the perspective of market atmosphere, many places in China have previously announced property market support measures, but the market response has been limited. The relative benefit lies in the 100 billion structural monetary policy tool, which provides financial support for housing rental operators in pilot cities to acquire existing housing and market-oriented revitalization of existing housing. , expand the supply of rental housing, and the market atmosphere will definitely pick up.


In general, coke maintains a game pattern of strong expectations and weak reality. The recent reappearance of supportive policies has driven coke to stop falling and rebound. However, the sustainability of the upward trend remains to be seen. In the short term, it is recommended to maintain a range-based approach and pay close attention to the dynamics of policies to stabilize growth.


Coking coal: According to foreign coal news, China is considering issuing ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to provide funds for projects related to food, energy, supply chains and urbanization. The market is expected to see steady growth again, driving the decline of black commodities to slow down.


On the industrial side, coal mines that completed last year's production targets have resumed production one after another after the holiday. Safety supervision issues have not yet had any further impact on coking coal production. China's coking coal production is basically stable. The average daily traffic volume of Mongolian coal at port 288 on the import side remains above 1,000 vehicles. Overall, coking coal supply is operating at a high level.


On the demand side, with the implementation of the second round of coke price cuts, the losses of coke companies have further increased. The losses per ton of coke of 30 sample coke companies in mainland China have reached 64 yuan/ton. Coke production is low, and the demand for coking coal is weak. Looking at specific data, as of January 12, the average daily output of clean coal from 110 coal washing plants in mainland China was 605,100 tons, an increase of 33,400 tons from the previous month; the average daily coke output of large sample coking plants totaled 1.149 million tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week. Ton.


In general, the coking coal industry is bearish. However, recent supportive policies have reappeared, and strong macroeconomic expectations have supported coking coal futures prices to stop falling and rebound slightly. It is recommended to maintain a short-term thinking and continue to pay attention to the dynamics of policies to stabilize growth.